Wednesday, September 28, 2011 was one of the greatest days
in baseball history, as two thrilling playoff races came to their
conclusions. Unless, like me, you’re a
Red Sox fan. That night finished off a nine-game
collapse in three and a half weeks, the worst in baseball history. The fallout from the collapse included the
team moving on from Terry Francona and Theo Epstein taking his talents to the
north side of Chicago. What do Bobby Valentine and company have to
look forward to in 2012? I’ll take a
look at the position players in this article.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia was decent in his first full season
behind the dish, hitting .235/.288/.450.
He did make too many outs though, and will have to improve on a pathetic
24/119 BB/K ratio if he’s going to get better in that regard. Saltalamacchia was much better against
right-handers (and has been over his entire career), hitting .247/.304/.481 vs.
them compared to .209/.252/.383 vs. southpaws.
However, due to Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield needing personal
catchers, he had too many at bats against lefties at the expense of those
against righties. Wakefield has retired, and hopefully Beckett
will be able to work with Saltalamacchia so the team does not have to sacrifice
offense when he’s on the mound. The team
brought in Kelly Shoppach to back up, and he has crushed LHP in his career
(.274/.373/.536). If Valentine can
execute a strict platoon, that would be ideal.
The expectations were sky-high for Adrian Gonzalez after
coming over from San Diego,
and he delivered, albeit in an unconventional way. Expected to pepper the Green Monster at will,
Gonzalez did not produce as much power as anticipated, instead trading fly balls
for ground balls. The swap produced more
hits, but it also may be unreasonable to expect a repeat of a .380 BABIP. However, he was also coming off shoulder
surgery which likely hindered his power.
A return to the old Gonzalez should be expected in 2012.
Yankees fans and unnamed baseball scouts and executives will take Robinson Cano, but Dustin Pedroia is the best player at the position in baseball. Only Chase Utley has produced more WAR among second basemen since Pedroia entered the league as a fulltime player in 2007, and Utley is now clearly on the back nine with mounting injury concerns. Nothing about Pedroia’s physical tools is particularly impressive, but the combination of decent power, excellent plate discipline and contact ability and outstanding defense make him an elite player. Pedroia is definitely aided by Fenway Park (.323/.387/.506 at home in his career compared to .287/.360/.421 outside Boston), but his overall line is still very good. And although defensive ratings can be dubious, Pedroia rates excellently by every metric.
Kevin Youkilis’ age and increasing injury history make him a
concern, but he should still be a very good player when he’s in the
lineup. The AL’s best hitter per plate appearance from
2008-10, Youkilis’ bat declined to merely above-average last year. However, there are hopes for a rebound in
that regard. Youkilis’ underlying
components (BB%, K%, GB/FB/LD rates) remained at the same level from the prior
three years, but his BABIP dropped 31 points.
Although he probably won’t fully return to his 2008-10 days, he’s still
a very good hitter. His defense is
slightly below average at the hot corner, but the bat makes up for it. Valentine will need to give Youkilis a day or
two off a week to keep him healthy for the duration of the season.
The Red Sox raised some eyebrows when they shipped Marco
Scutaro to the Rockies in a salary dump
(usually the Red Sox are on the other end of those deals), as they’re leaving
themselves with Mike Aviles and Nick Punto at shortstop. Aviles burst
on the scene in Kansas City
in 2008; however, he hasn’t done much since.
He’s still a good hitter against LHP (.299/.344/.470 career), but sees
over a 100-point drop in OPS vs. RHP and is a below average defender. Punto had a career year last year in St. Louis, but it was in
only 166 PA and 13 of his 25 walks were either intentional or batting eighth in
front of the pitcher. Punto has been a
very good defender around the infield; unfortunately, his lack of bat prevents
him from being a starter. He should see
some starts vs. RHP when the Red Sox have a groundball pitcher going.
Simply put, Carl Crawford was awful in his first season with
the Red Sox last year. Although
committing seven years to a 29-year old who wasn’t a good fit for Fenway Park
was questioned from the get-go, no one could have predicted that he would be a
replacement-level player in year one.
There are signs of hope in year two, as Crawford was decent after an
awful start (.209/.243/.277 through May 22, .280/.313/.474 for the rest of the
season). Crawford will likely miss the
start of the season recovering from wrist surgery, which could have longer-term
implications. He’ll likely never repeat
his 2010 season, but should end up being a solid (although very overpaid)
player for the next couple of seasons if the wrist doesn’t hinder him.
With apologies to Justin Verlander, Jacoby Ellsbury was
clearly the 2011 AL MVP. I guess it was
his fault that the Red Sox threw out a rotation in September that the Orioles
laughed at. Ellsbury even hit
.364/.388/.700 with eight home runs during the 24 games of the collapse;
apparently he should have hit 80. While
it’s unreasonable to expect an encore, Ellsbury should still produce a decent
amount of power. Only five
of his 32 home runs (15.6%) were labeled “just enough” (including one
inside-the-parker) by ESPN HitTracker Online compared to the league average of 27%,
while eight were marked “no doubt”, seven percent above league average. Combine that with outstanding speed and excellent
defense in centerfield, and Ellsbury should be a very good player for a long
time.
One of the biggest reasons why the Red Sox weren’t as good
as they could’ve been in 2011 was the complete lack of production in right
field. J.D. Drew’s age caught up to him very
fast; Josh Reddick replaced him and did a decent job, but the team got a
.233/.299/.353 aggregate line from the position, which is completely
unacceptable especially for one that envisions itself as a contender. Drew has retired and Reddick was dealt to Oakland in the deal that brought Ryan Sweeney to Boston. Sweeney doesn’t have much power and is inept
against southpaws, but gets on base against right-handers and is a plus
defender in the corner outfield spots.
The Red Sox signed Cody Ross with some of the money they saved from
dealing Scutaro. Ross should provide an
excellent complement to Sweeney, as he owns a career .282/.349/.563 line
against LHP. He can also hold his own
against righties, and will face a decent amount of them as he will likely fill
in for Crawford at the beginning of the season.
Darnell McDonald is the opposite of Sweeney - solid against LHP and
useless against RHP. He should platoon
with Sweeney while Crawford is out, and then could be on the chopping block
when Crawford returns.
While he’s now 36 years old and slightly overpaid on a
one-year deal, David Ortiz should still be a very good hitter in 2012. Ortiz looked to be in decline after 2009, but
bounced back with excellent campaigns the last two years. He completely reversed his rising strikeout
rate last year while maintaining his power and hitting more line drives, a very
good sign for 2012. He also turned
around the inability to hit left-handed pitching, crushing them at a
.329/.423/.566 clip last year. That
shouldn’t be expected to repeat, but Ortiz should at least not be a liability
in that area again.
The Red Sox had the best offense in baseball last year, and
offense was not the reason that they collapsed down the stretch. Some regression should be expected from
Ellsbury and Ortiz and Scutaro’s production is unlikely to be replicated, but there
should be large improvements in both the corner outfield spots as well as modest
ones behind the plate and at the hot corner.
The Red Sox will be neck-and-neck with the Yankees for the league’s best
offense in 2012.
-Dan Katz
-Dan Katz
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