A Look at the (Kinda) New Line-up
Not too much has changed from last years lineup that produced 869 runs, the second most in baseball only bested by the rival Red Sox. Let's preview the line-up and see how Girardi might be inclined to move some bats around. The Yanks have embraced the platoon DH split, but with premiere to above average bats at every position most Yankees will be in the line up 155+ games this year. Let's see how the lineup will shape up against right handed and left handed pitching.
Projected Line up vs. RHP (2011 wOBA vs. RHP)
Jeter, R (.298)
Granderson, L (.388)
Cano, L (.373)
Rodriguez, R (.369)
Teixeira, S (.337)
Swisher, S (.335)
Ibanez, L (.322)
Martin, R (.330)
Gardner, L (.328)
Not too shabby. This lineup will be in use roughly 70% of the time, and it's a good one. The Yankees are one of the few teams who can trot out 8/9 .320+ wOBA guys, and this is primarily where they do their damage. Of course we would all love to see Gardner and Jeter switch places against righties, but its an afterthought as Girardi respects Jeter too much to pencil him in at the bottom of the lineup on four of six days of the week. Even with Jeter stinking it up at the top and doing anything but setting the table for the rest of the order, this lineup actually could improve against RHP's in 2012. Jeter looked better down the stretch and began to finally get the ball airborne against RHP's, while his career .344 wOBA against RHP's may be a thing of the past, hopefully the Captain can rebound to the .310/.320 range and provide some on base skills for the mashers behind him. Granderson and Cano are pretty self explanatory as they will surely continue to rake against RHP's. A Rod is an interesting case as he hit righties far better than lefties (.369 vs. .333), with health hopefully on his side he can replicate these numbers. Teixeira is the real wild card in this lineup as last year his .337 wOBA was flat out not good enough to justify his contract. Tex has already admitted his deficiency against RHP's and has vowed to work with Kevin Long to lessen the uppercut designed to send balls into the short 3rd deck in right, and instead begin to spray the ball circa 2007. With just a .222 BABIP vs. RHP's, we can expect some serious improvement to the mean of about .300, this should boost his numbers and make the Yankees even more dominant vs. RHP's in 2012. While Swisher can been better hitting left handed throughout his career (.377 vs. .350), I expect his .335 figure to improve to his career average of .350 once again due to an unusually low BABIP of .259. Ibanez was brought in solely to hit RHP's as the left handed hitting portion of the DH platoon. I've covered his expectations more in depth for 2012 in an earlier article so feel free to check that out. Martin figures to produce about the same as his 2011 numbers are right in line with his career figures. Gardner, while in a perfect world would be getting on base at a .360+ clip atop the line up will unfortunately hit 9th even against RHP's unless Girardi wants to slide everyone down one spot (don't hold your breath). It really is a shame that one of the Yankee biggest assets of on base skills and speed is wasted at the bottom of the order, but life isn't fair and neither is baseball. With Eric Chavez as a PH option off the bench, (2011 wOBA of .298) we have some insurance against a tight spot late in games. With a solid L/R/S mix, the Yanks figure to mash righties once again in 2012.
Projected Line up vs. LHP (2011 wOBA vs. LHP)
Jeter, R (.413)
Granderson, L (.400)
Cano, L (.373)
Rodriguez, R (.333)
Teixeira, S (.410)
Swisher, S (.412)
Jones, R (.400)
Martin, R (.305)
Gardner, L (.290)
Those are some good looking wOBA's against LHP's. Unfortunately for the Yankees they will only see a lefty on the hill about 30% of the time, maybe slightly more with the bevy of left handed pitching in the AL East. Jeter shined against LHP's in 2011 posting a .400+ wOBA, certainly his skills match up with a typical leadoff hitter here as he got on base at a .423 clip. Granderson had a revival against LHP's in 2011. A career .301 wOBA hitter against LHP's his number soared, and it wasn't a BABIP function (.301) or seemingly any other peripheral stat. Instead it seems to be his swing as he looked far more comfortable and kept both hands on the bat longer through the zone allowing him to pull the ball with much better power as he slugged .200 points better than his career average in 2011. Cano will most likely put up similar numbers as his game is rock solid and peaking going into his age 29 season. A Rod seems poised for a bounce back against LHP's in 2012 as his 2011 numbers were simply not good enough. A healthy hip should allow him to get his bat through the zone better and hit for more power than in 2011, just a .383 SLG against LHP's. I'm thinking more homers into the left field seats and more doubles into death valley in 2012. Teixeira need not work on his right handed stroke as he mashed lefties in 2011 and will surely continue to do so in 2012. Same goes for Swish as he has always hit lefties better, while .412 might be tough to replicate (.377 career), I still expect similar production going forward as he loves the short RF porch. Andruw Jones was a monster down the stretch, saving the Yanks from letting Posada hit lefties, and posting a .400 wOBA. While this will be tough to replicate, he has posted .400+ in back to back seasons against LHP, once in 2010 with a miniscule .237 BABIP, and once in 2011 with an enormous .356 BABIP. Jones should find a happy medium and look to contribute a .375+ wOBA in about 150-200 PA's. Martin surprisingly hit righties better than lefties in 2011. Look for his numbers to jump up, ideally to his career figure of .361. Gardner is in the lineup vs. lefties solely for his glove/speed, which is more than fine with me, but he belongs at the bottom, creating the often talked about "circular lineup". Eduardo Nunez is also a capable PH option late in games as well, posting a .321 wOBA agaist LHP's.
Overall I expect the Yanks to put up huge offensive numbers in 2012. Maybe approach the 900 run plateau with some bouncebacks vs. RHP's. While the lineup Girardi will pencil in every day isn't ideal, the only changes I would make is Gardner lead off vs. RHP's with Jeter at the bottom of the order, and let Tex hit 4th against LHP's and bump A Rod to 5th. While this seems unlikely to happen, by mid season things could change based on production. The Yankees look to top MLB in runs scored in 2012, and I think it could very well happen.
- Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
Previewing the Red Sox: Part One
Wednesday, September 28, 2011 was one of the greatest days
in baseball history, as two thrilling playoff races came to their
conclusions. Unless, like me, you’re a
Red Sox fan. That night finished off a nine-game
collapse in three and a half weeks, the worst in baseball history. The fallout from the collapse included the
team moving on from Terry Francona and Theo Epstein taking his talents to the
north side of Chicago. What do Bobby Valentine and company have to
look forward to in 2012? I’ll take a
look at the position players in this article.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia was decent in his first full season
behind the dish, hitting .235/.288/.450.
He did make too many outs though, and will have to improve on a pathetic
24/119 BB/K ratio if he’s going to get better in that regard. Saltalamacchia was much better against
right-handers (and has been over his entire career), hitting .247/.304/.481 vs.
them compared to .209/.252/.383 vs. southpaws.
However, due to Josh Beckett and Tim Wakefield needing personal
catchers, he had too many at bats against lefties at the expense of those
against righties. Wakefield has retired, and hopefully Beckett
will be able to work with Saltalamacchia so the team does not have to sacrifice
offense when he’s on the mound. The team
brought in Kelly Shoppach to back up, and he has crushed LHP in his career
(.274/.373/.536). If Valentine can
execute a strict platoon, that would be ideal.
The expectations were sky-high for Adrian Gonzalez after
coming over from San Diego,
and he delivered, albeit in an unconventional way. Expected to pepper the Green Monster at will,
Gonzalez did not produce as much power as anticipated, instead trading fly balls
for ground balls. The swap produced more
hits, but it also may be unreasonable to expect a repeat of a .380 BABIP. However, he was also coming off shoulder
surgery which likely hindered his power.
A return to the old Gonzalez should be expected in 2012.
Yankees fans and unnamed baseball scouts and executives will take Robinson Cano, but Dustin Pedroia is the best player at the position in baseball. Only Chase Utley has produced more WAR among second basemen since Pedroia entered the league as a fulltime player in 2007, and Utley is now clearly on the back nine with mounting injury concerns. Nothing about Pedroia’s physical tools is particularly impressive, but the combination of decent power, excellent plate discipline and contact ability and outstanding defense make him an elite player. Pedroia is definitely aided by Fenway Park (.323/.387/.506 at home in his career compared to .287/.360/.421 outside Boston), but his overall line is still very good. And although defensive ratings can be dubious, Pedroia rates excellently by every metric.
Kevin Youkilis’ age and increasing injury history make him a
concern, but he should still be a very good player when he’s in the
lineup. The AL’s best hitter per plate appearance from
2008-10, Youkilis’ bat declined to merely above-average last year. However, there are hopes for a rebound in
that regard. Youkilis’ underlying
components (BB%, K%, GB/FB/LD rates) remained at the same level from the prior
three years, but his BABIP dropped 31 points.
Although he probably won’t fully return to his 2008-10 days, he’s still
a very good hitter. His defense is
slightly below average at the hot corner, but the bat makes up for it. Valentine will need to give Youkilis a day or
two off a week to keep him healthy for the duration of the season.
The Red Sox raised some eyebrows when they shipped Marco
Scutaro to the Rockies in a salary dump
(usually the Red Sox are on the other end of those deals), as they’re leaving
themselves with Mike Aviles and Nick Punto at shortstop. Aviles burst
on the scene in Kansas City
in 2008; however, he hasn’t done much since.
He’s still a good hitter against LHP (.299/.344/.470 career), but sees
over a 100-point drop in OPS vs. RHP and is a below average defender. Punto had a career year last year in St. Louis, but it was in
only 166 PA and 13 of his 25 walks were either intentional or batting eighth in
front of the pitcher. Punto has been a
very good defender around the infield; unfortunately, his lack of bat prevents
him from being a starter. He should see
some starts vs. RHP when the Red Sox have a groundball pitcher going.
Simply put, Carl Crawford was awful in his first season with
the Red Sox last year. Although
committing seven years to a 29-year old who wasn’t a good fit for Fenway Park
was questioned from the get-go, no one could have predicted that he would be a
replacement-level player in year one.
There are signs of hope in year two, as Crawford was decent after an
awful start (.209/.243/.277 through May 22, .280/.313/.474 for the rest of the
season). Crawford will likely miss the
start of the season recovering from wrist surgery, which could have longer-term
implications. He’ll likely never repeat
his 2010 season, but should end up being a solid (although very overpaid)
player for the next couple of seasons if the wrist doesn’t hinder him.
With apologies to Justin Verlander, Jacoby Ellsbury was
clearly the 2011 AL MVP. I guess it was
his fault that the Red Sox threw out a rotation in September that the Orioles
laughed at. Ellsbury even hit
.364/.388/.700 with eight home runs during the 24 games of the collapse;
apparently he should have hit 80. While
it’s unreasonable to expect an encore, Ellsbury should still produce a decent
amount of power. Only five
of his 32 home runs (15.6%) were labeled “just enough” (including one
inside-the-parker) by ESPN HitTracker Online compared to the league average of 27%,
while eight were marked “no doubt”, seven percent above league average. Combine that with outstanding speed and excellent
defense in centerfield, and Ellsbury should be a very good player for a long
time.
One of the biggest reasons why the Red Sox weren’t as good
as they could’ve been in 2011 was the complete lack of production in right
field. J.D. Drew’s age caught up to him very
fast; Josh Reddick replaced him and did a decent job, but the team got a
.233/.299/.353 aggregate line from the position, which is completely
unacceptable especially for one that envisions itself as a contender. Drew has retired and Reddick was dealt to Oakland in the deal that brought Ryan Sweeney to Boston. Sweeney doesn’t have much power and is inept
against southpaws, but gets on base against right-handers and is a plus
defender in the corner outfield spots.
The Red Sox signed Cody Ross with some of the money they saved from
dealing Scutaro. Ross should provide an
excellent complement to Sweeney, as he owns a career .282/.349/.563 line
against LHP. He can also hold his own
against righties, and will face a decent amount of them as he will likely fill
in for Crawford at the beginning of the season.
Darnell McDonald is the opposite of Sweeney - solid against LHP and
useless against RHP. He should platoon
with Sweeney while Crawford is out, and then could be on the chopping block
when Crawford returns.
While he’s now 36 years old and slightly overpaid on a
one-year deal, David Ortiz should still be a very good hitter in 2012. Ortiz looked to be in decline after 2009, but
bounced back with excellent campaigns the last two years. He completely reversed his rising strikeout
rate last year while maintaining his power and hitting more line drives, a very
good sign for 2012. He also turned
around the inability to hit left-handed pitching, crushing them at a
.329/.423/.566 clip last year. That
shouldn’t be expected to repeat, but Ortiz should at least not be a liability
in that area again.
The Red Sox had the best offense in baseball last year, and
offense was not the reason that they collapsed down the stretch. Some regression should be expected from
Ellsbury and Ortiz and Scutaro’s production is unlikely to be replicated, but there
should be large improvements in both the corner outfield spots as well as modest
ones behind the plate and at the hot corner.
The Red Sox will be neck-and-neck with the Yankees for the league’s best
offense in 2012.
-Dan Katz
-Dan Katz
Home Run Regress? Granderson Edition
I love Curtis Granderson. From the moment the Yanks traded the raw and limited Austin Jackson, for the already polished and well rounded Granderson, I knew it was a match made it heaven. Between speed, defense, patience, and LH power, Curtis was going to excel as a Yankee. The short right field porch was also seemingly going to boost his power and homer total.
Before 2011, Granderson was never a huge homer threat, evidenced by hitting 102 bombs in about 2,900 PA's as a Tiger, about a 3.5% clip. However, as a Yankee his power has exploded, slugging 65 homers in just over 1,200 PA's, a 5.3% clip. While Yankee Stadium has a lot to do with this increase in homers, there are some worrying trends that might suggest 2011 was Grandy's peak power year. Let's look at Curtis' 2011 numbers to see if he can slug another 40 in 2012.
41 Home runs is a boatload on today's post-steroid game, Granderson's 41 ranked 2nd in all of MLB behind just Jose Batista's 43. Often when players hit an inordinate amount of homers in a year (Granderon's 41 is 11 more than his previous career high), there is often an element of luck that factored into the total. We can look at some batted ball data, and hittrackeronline.com to see what kind of homers he hit and if they are repeatable. The first number that jumps off the charts is Granderson's HR/FB%. Last year he put up a 20.5% figure, 6.6%, or about a 33% increase from his career average of 13.9%. League average is about 10.6%, so to almost double that figure raises some red flags. As we know regression to the mean is an ever present factor in the game, so almost certainly we would expect his 2012 HR/FB% to mirror his career number of 13.9% going forward. Yankee Stadium has obviously had some effect so lets use his Yankee career HR/FB% of 17.5% as a better measure. I'm not wishing regression on Curtis, but it seems inevitable, a 3% regression means more outs and less home runs. Also, the fact that his Flyball % stayed right around his career average, we can assume many of the fly balls he hit last year will turn into outs. Adjusting for regression in this area can account for a 3-4 HR decrease in 2012.
Next we need to look at what type of homers Granderson hit last year. Of course all home runs are scored equally, but not all are hit the same, or will leave each ballpark in different circumstances. Hittrackeronline.com measures HR distance, trajectory, speed, apex, etc. It is definitely the best source out there for tracking homers. HTO groups home runs into categories:
"Just Enough"- Means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.
"No Doubt"- Means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the really deep blasts.
"Plenty"- Everything else, except for the 2 above Home run types
"Lucky"- A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day.
It goes without saying that the best and most consistent HR hitters hit lots of no doubters and plenty's. The more just enough and lucky homers, the more likely those home runs are going to become outs the following year. Let's see how Curtis measured up in each category.
Just Enough- 8, No Doubt- 11, Plenty- 17, Lucky- 5
While Granderson lead the Yankees in each category due to his total HR output, the number of Lucky HR's is scary. Granderson lead all of MLB with 5, which screams regress. Only 4 players total hit more than 3 lucky HR's, so it is rarefied but not pleasant company. While luck is an inherent factor, and an ever present one, we can't assume he won't hit some lucky HR's in 2012. However, we can almost guarantee it will not be 5+. If we estimate a more realistic figure of 2-3 lucky homers, which would still place Granderson near the top of that not-so-distinctive list, that's still a 2-3 HR decrease from 2011. If we combine that 2-3 HR difference due to luck with the 3-4 HR difference due to his inflated HR/FB%, we're looking at a HR total of around 34-36. I think this is a much more realistic figure given his career numbers, improvement in his swing due to Kevin Long, and his move from spacious Comerica to cozy Yankee Stadium.
So while many people expect Curtis to belt another 40 home runs and be one of the biggest power threats in the game once again, I see room for regression to a more realistic homer total of about 35 in 2012. While this seems marginal, the value of a HR is so great that a six homer difference could change a few games for the Yanks in 2012.
- Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs, Hittrackeronline.com
I love Curtis Granderson. From the moment the Yanks traded the raw and limited Austin Jackson, for the already polished and well rounded Granderson, I knew it was a match made it heaven. Between speed, defense, patience, and LH power, Curtis was going to excel as a Yankee. The short right field porch was also seemingly going to boost his power and homer total.
Before 2011, Granderson was never a huge homer threat, evidenced by hitting 102 bombs in about 2,900 PA's as a Tiger, about a 3.5% clip. However, as a Yankee his power has exploded, slugging 65 homers in just over 1,200 PA's, a 5.3% clip. While Yankee Stadium has a lot to do with this increase in homers, there are some worrying trends that might suggest 2011 was Grandy's peak power year. Let's look at Curtis' 2011 numbers to see if he can slug another 40 in 2012.
41 Home runs is a boatload on today's post-steroid game, Granderson's 41 ranked 2nd in all of MLB behind just Jose Batista's 43. Often when players hit an inordinate amount of homers in a year (Granderon's 41 is 11 more than his previous career high), there is often an element of luck that factored into the total. We can look at some batted ball data, and hittrackeronline.com to see what kind of homers he hit and if they are repeatable. The first number that jumps off the charts is Granderson's HR/FB%. Last year he put up a 20.5% figure, 6.6%, or about a 33% increase from his career average of 13.9%. League average is about 10.6%, so to almost double that figure raises some red flags. As we know regression to the mean is an ever present factor in the game, so almost certainly we would expect his 2012 HR/FB% to mirror his career number of 13.9% going forward. Yankee Stadium has obviously had some effect so lets use his Yankee career HR/FB% of 17.5% as a better measure. I'm not wishing regression on Curtis, but it seems inevitable, a 3% regression means more outs and less home runs. Also, the fact that his Flyball % stayed right around his career average, we can assume many of the fly balls he hit last year will turn into outs. Adjusting for regression in this area can account for a 3-4 HR decrease in 2012.
Next we need to look at what type of homers Granderson hit last year. Of course all home runs are scored equally, but not all are hit the same, or will leave each ballpark in different circumstances. Hittrackeronline.com measures HR distance, trajectory, speed, apex, etc. It is definitely the best source out there for tracking homers. HTO groups home runs into categories:
"Just Enough"- Means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence.
"No Doubt"- Means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the really deep blasts.
"Plenty"- Everything else, except for the 2 above Home run types
"Lucky"- A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day.
It goes without saying that the best and most consistent HR hitters hit lots of no doubters and plenty's. The more just enough and lucky homers, the more likely those home runs are going to become outs the following year. Let's see how Curtis measured up in each category.
Just Enough- 8, No Doubt- 11, Plenty- 17, Lucky- 5
While Granderson lead the Yankees in each category due to his total HR output, the number of Lucky HR's is scary. Granderson lead all of MLB with 5, which screams regress. Only 4 players total hit more than 3 lucky HR's, so it is rarefied but not pleasant company. While luck is an inherent factor, and an ever present one, we can't assume he won't hit some lucky HR's in 2012. However, we can almost guarantee it will not be 5+. If we estimate a more realistic figure of 2-3 lucky homers, which would still place Granderson near the top of that not-so-distinctive list, that's still a 2-3 HR decrease from 2011. If we combine that 2-3 HR difference due to luck with the 3-4 HR difference due to his inflated HR/FB%, we're looking at a HR total of around 34-36. I think this is a much more realistic figure given his career numbers, improvement in his swing due to Kevin Long, and his move from spacious Comerica to cozy Yankee Stadium.
So while many people expect Curtis to belt another 40 home runs and be one of the biggest power threats in the game once again, I see room for regression to a more realistic homer total of about 35 in 2012. While this seems marginal, the value of a HR is so great that a six homer difference could change a few games for the Yanks in 2012.
- Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs, Hittrackeronline.com
Friday, February 24, 2012
Who is the next Mo?
Here is something that we all know, replacing Mariano Rivera is impossible. Rivera has been the most
dominant closer in the league over the past 17 years, and it isn’t particularly close. Mo is 42 now and is
apparently leaning towards retirement after this season (contract is up after 2012) in a major way.
To see just how dominant Rivera is, consider his pitch repertoire. He throws a combination of a fastball and
cutter, leaning towards the cutter almost 84% of the time. According to PitchFx pitch values /100, Rivera’s
Fastball and Cutter measured at 1.13 and 2.13 respectively. The weighted average value of these pitches,
because Rivera uses his cutter far more frequently, is 1.97. As a disclaimer, these statistics were only kept
since 2007, so we are missing out on many of Rivera’s prime years.
I took all of the relievers that were eligible since 2007 and looked at their two most frequently used pitches,
and no one comes close to Rivera. Rivera’s weighted average value of his two pitches is 2.56 standard
deviations above the mean; the next closest is Heath Bell with 1.54 standard deviations above the mean. In
layman’s terms, Mariano Rivera is beyond a stud. His cutter, with a value of 2.13, is the third highest rated
pitch amongst the eligible relievers. Ryan Madson’s change-up (2.46) and Francisco Rodriguez’s change-
up (2.91) were both higher, but both have a usage rate under 28%. Rivera uses his cutter almost 84% of the
time, and hitters still can’t do anything against it.
In case anyone was wondering, Nick Masset is the most useless reliever on the list, with a combination of a
crappy fastball and very crappy curveball.
So who replaces Rivera? As Alex pointed out, Cashman prefers to keep his bullpen cheap, so I don’t expect to see another Soriano signing any time soon. Not to mention, I hope the “closer” role becomes extinct fairly soon.
Internally, for the time being, the Yankees are looking at Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Joba
Chamberlain, Cory Wade, Boone Logan and recently signed, but currently injured, David Aardsma.
In looking at the top two pitches for everyone, Soriano is the only one close with a good fastball-slider
combination. Robertson has a good fastball, but still has to develop his curveball. He is only 26, so that is
not outside of the realm of possibility. Joba and Logan both have weak fastballs with good sliders, but are
26 and 27 respectively, so they have some time to develop as well.
Not only does Rivera have two nasty pitches, but his command within the zone is un-paralleled by the other
Yankee pitchers. Mo’s K/BB is 4.04; Soriano is next with 3.37, Chamberlain and Robertson both with
about 2.55 and Logan with 2.05.
At this point, Soriano, 32, seems like the candidate for a poor man’s Mariano, but he slips when it comes
to keeping the ball in the ball park and on the ground. Rivera’s HR/9 is .48, Soriano is at .89. Mo’s gets
ground balls 53.2% of the time, while Soriano is at 31.4%, and as Alex said in the last article, those
numbers do not cut it in Yankee Stadium.
As much as Mike Francesa will fight it, Rivera’s replacement, at least internally, is going to be David
Robertson. His GB% is 41.4, which is low, but his HR/9 throughout his career is .58. As a 26 year old, he
has time to develop his curveball and work on his walk rate.
Joba and Logan both have slightly better GB rates, but they allow too many home runs with similar, if not
worse command.
Robertson strikes out a ton of people and keeps the ball in the park. No one will equal Rivera and it isn’t
worth it to try. Robertson is a relatively cheap option that can continue to develop while already performing
at an above average level.
- Ian Boehme
Fantasy Baseball
Anyone interested in joining a fantasy baseball league this year needs to look no further than our Yahoo League. To get in is $40, we plan to set up a paypal account to pay the winner and assure payment from all parties. The league settings are as followed:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, UTIL
SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, RP, RP
4 Bench, 5 DL
We work on a variation of wOBA for hitters and FIP for pitchers, point values are awarded for each outcome...
All in All it's a real fun league with some very competitive and knowledgable players,
please email Alexander.Bardani@gmail.com for more information. Thanks and please join!
- Alex Bardani
Anyone interested in joining a fantasy baseball league this year needs to look no further than our Yahoo League. To get in is $40, we plan to set up a paypal account to pay the winner and assure payment from all parties. The league settings are as followed:
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, UTIL
SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, RP, RP
4 Bench, 5 DL
We work on a variation of wOBA for hitters and FIP for pitchers, point values are awarded for each outcome...
| At Bats (AB) | -.232 |
| Hits (H) | .735 |
| Doubles (2B) | .31 |
| Triples (3B) | .6 |
| Home Runs (HR) | .93 |
| Sacrifice Flys (SF) | -.232 |
| Stolen Bases (SB) | .172 |
| Caught Stealing (CS) | -.478 |
| Walks (BB) | .353 |
| Intentional Walks (IBB) | -.135 |
| Hit By Pitch (HBP) | .383 |
| Innings Pitched (IP) | .151 |
| Home Runs (HR) | -1.4 |
| Walks (BB) | -.32 |
| Intentional Walks (IBB) | .135 |
| Hit Batters (HBP) | -.35 |
| Strikeouts (K) | .265 |
All in All it's a real fun league with some very competitive and knowledgable players,
please email Alexander.Bardani@gmail.com for more information. Thanks and please join!
- Alex Bardani
Rafael Soriano- Do We Get a Mulligan?
Few signings have come under more scrutiny over the past few years than Rafael Soriano's 3 year $35 million dollar deal before the 2011 season. Brought on to be the infamous "8th inning guy" (because we know Girardi loves to assign relief pitchers to innings instead of use based on leverage), Soriano has sorely disappointed, and just is not the pitcher the Yankees thought he was.
This signing was perplexing at the time as Cashman recently said, “I used to sign (Paul) Quantrill, (Steve) Karsay, Gabe White, all these veteran relievers,”said Brian Cashman earlier this week. “Now, our bullpen, for the most part, is homegrown or low-risk guys like Cory Wade who we popped off the waiver wire. The bullpen has become a cheap thing for me.”
Clearly Cashman has realized a very important aspect of building a team, relief pitchers are unpredictable and unreliable and therefore unworthy of multi-year 7 figure deals. Of course with pushy upper management such as Levine and Steinbrenner, Cashman isn't the final decision maker. That is why the GM is the GM and the owner is the owner, but its not something that can be/will be changed anytime soon.
Soriano has vastly underperformed as a Yankee, but what did he do to get this huge deal? For one the Rays have had an affinity for producing one year wonder relief pitchers, probably as a result of pitching coach Jim Hickey. Soriano had a great 2010, not even I can deny that, but there were red flags everywhere as his peripheral stats were in for some serious regression. His 45 saves (blah) and 1.73 ERA looked great, so did the 4/1 K/BB ratio, but other than that Yankee ownership should have thought more of what he will provide from here on instead of paying for a career year. Soriano had a .199 BABIP, extraordinarily low and as we know a guarantee to bounce back to the normal .300 range. That has a huge impact on a pitcher's value and surely Cashman saw this and wanted to stay as far away as possible. Also Soriano had just a 35.2% GB rate, something that can fly in Tropicana, but not at Yankee Stadium. To go along with being a fly ball pitcher he posted just a 4.8% FB/HR rate, almost 3% below his career average, and also a number that can easily be inflated in years to come at a smaller ballpark. His FIP (2.81) and xFIP (3.62) were also clear indicators of his true performance rather than the tiny ERA he posted. As we know ERA and saves are terrible measures to use in evaluating and signing a player, Cashman knew of this and smartly avoided this, but Randy Levine just could not restrain himself from making at least one big free agent signing in the off season.
Even after being a very useful pitcher in 2010, 62 IP and a sub 2 ERA lead to just 1.5 WAR. Relief pitchers have marginal value in comparison to starters/position players, and their salaries should be reflective of that value. Even in a year such as Soriano's 2010, he was worth only $7.5-8 million. To pay roughly $12 million for just .3 WAR last year is sickening, and a waste of precious funds. $12 Million even for 1.5 WAR is still asinine. Surely many of us would do anything to take the way-back machine and kidnap Randy Levine to avoid this signing, but we'e stuck.
In my rough estimation Soriano should produce about 1-1.5 wins in the final two years of his contract, which is fine, just not for the astronomical price of $24 Mil. On top of that, we have already found our "8th inning guy" in the studly David Robertson. We also have the useful (and more valuable in 2011) Cory Wade, not to mention Joba and newly acquired David Aardsma coming back mid summer. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say Hughes will lose the battle for 5th starter and join the bullpen. Needless to say we still have the GOAT in Mariano to close out games. So why do we need Soriano?
References: Fangraphs
Few signings have come under more scrutiny over the past few years than Rafael Soriano's 3 year $35 million dollar deal before the 2011 season. Brought on to be the infamous "8th inning guy" (because we know Girardi loves to assign relief pitchers to innings instead of use based on leverage), Soriano has sorely disappointed, and just is not the pitcher the Yankees thought he was.
This signing was perplexing at the time as Cashman recently said, “I used to sign (Paul) Quantrill, (Steve) Karsay, Gabe White, all these veteran relievers,”said Brian Cashman earlier this week. “Now, our bullpen, for the most part, is homegrown or low-risk guys like Cory Wade who we popped off the waiver wire. The bullpen has become a cheap thing for me.”
Clearly Cashman has realized a very important aspect of building a team, relief pitchers are unpredictable and unreliable and therefore unworthy of multi-year 7 figure deals. Of course with pushy upper management such as Levine and Steinbrenner, Cashman isn't the final decision maker. That is why the GM is the GM and the owner is the owner, but its not something that can be/will be changed anytime soon.
Soriano has vastly underperformed as a Yankee, but what did he do to get this huge deal? For one the Rays have had an affinity for producing one year wonder relief pitchers, probably as a result of pitching coach Jim Hickey. Soriano had a great 2010, not even I can deny that, but there were red flags everywhere as his peripheral stats were in for some serious regression. His 45 saves (blah) and 1.73 ERA looked great, so did the 4/1 K/BB ratio, but other than that Yankee ownership should have thought more of what he will provide from here on instead of paying for a career year. Soriano had a .199 BABIP, extraordinarily low and as we know a guarantee to bounce back to the normal .300 range. That has a huge impact on a pitcher's value and surely Cashman saw this and wanted to stay as far away as possible. Also Soriano had just a 35.2% GB rate, something that can fly in Tropicana, but not at Yankee Stadium. To go along with being a fly ball pitcher he posted just a 4.8% FB/HR rate, almost 3% below his career average, and also a number that can easily be inflated in years to come at a smaller ballpark. His FIP (2.81) and xFIP (3.62) were also clear indicators of his true performance rather than the tiny ERA he posted. As we know ERA and saves are terrible measures to use in evaluating and signing a player, Cashman knew of this and smartly avoided this, but Randy Levine just could not restrain himself from making at least one big free agent signing in the off season.
Even after being a very useful pitcher in 2010, 62 IP and a sub 2 ERA lead to just 1.5 WAR. Relief pitchers have marginal value in comparison to starters/position players, and their salaries should be reflective of that value. Even in a year such as Soriano's 2010, he was worth only $7.5-8 million. To pay roughly $12 million for just .3 WAR last year is sickening, and a waste of precious funds. $12 Million even for 1.5 WAR is still asinine. Surely many of us would do anything to take the way-back machine and kidnap Randy Levine to avoid this signing, but we'e stuck.
In my rough estimation Soriano should produce about 1-1.5 wins in the final two years of his contract, which is fine, just not for the astronomical price of $24 Mil. On top of that, we have already found our "8th inning guy" in the studly David Robertson. We also have the useful (and more valuable in 2011) Cory Wade, not to mention Joba and newly acquired David Aardsma coming back mid summer. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say Hughes will lose the battle for 5th starter and join the bullpen. Needless to say we still have the GOAT in Mariano to close out games. So why do we need Soriano?
The lesson to learn here is that it is simply a waste of funds to give a relief pitcher multiple years and ridiculous dollars because they pitch in an "important inning". Aren't all innings equally important? Cashman knows this, Randy Levine doesn't, that's why Cashman should make the personnel decisions and Levine can figure out whether to charge $10.50 or $11 for a Coors Light. So while we can't reverse the past, we can hope to be optimistic for the future. Hopefully Soriano can rebound, but I don't think any pitcher could replicate his funky 2010 numbers, justifying that massive and unnecessary contract. Lets pray that this is a learning experience, even if it is a very frustrating and expensive one.
-Alex Bardani
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Good Riddance: See Ya AJ
So much to say about AJ Burnett's NYY tenure. I for one disliked the signing from the get-go and not surprisingly AJ's performance in pinstripes was less than stellar. For just 3 years, he was paid $70 Mil and worth about $28.2 Mil total. With an average annual value of $23 Mil (Same as CC's AAV) we got 6 wins of production, paying a staggering $11.67 Mil/Win. CC last year alone was worth over 7 wins at the same price. Just a complete albatross of a contract and allocation of funds to a truly awful pitcher. And for all those "what about game 2 of the world series!?!?!" argument here are AJ's Yankee postseason #'s:
2-2, 39 IP, 5.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 1.35 K/BB
I could go on for days but I'll spare Yankee fans from remembering AJ any further. So AJ all I can say is good riddance and godspeed.
- Alex Bardani
So much to say about AJ Burnett's NYY tenure. I for one disliked the signing from the get-go and not surprisingly AJ's performance in pinstripes was less than stellar. For just 3 years, he was paid $70 Mil and worth about $28.2 Mil total. With an average annual value of $23 Mil (Same as CC's AAV) we got 6 wins of production, paying a staggering $11.67 Mil/Win. CC last year alone was worth over 7 wins at the same price. Just a complete albatross of a contract and allocation of funds to a truly awful pitcher. And for all those "what about game 2 of the world series!?!?!" argument here are AJ's Yankee postseason #'s:
2-2, 39 IP, 5.08 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 1.35 K/BB
I could go on for days but I'll spare Yankee fans from remembering AJ any further. So AJ all I can say is good riddance and godspeed.
- Alex Bardani
DH Downgrade?
As we all know the Yankees DH struggles were well documented last year. Jorge Posada took the brunt of the criticism as he had his worst hitting year of his career with a paltry .235/.315/.398 triple slash line. Jorge took most of the AB's at DH (344) but Andruw Jones also took a good amount of AB's against lefties (128) by seasons end, which matches the 70/30 RHP/LHP frequency. This wasn't an ideal situation by any means as many other AL teams finished with better DH production, but it was serviceable.
The platoon of Jones and Posada when examined further may not be as bad as it looked on the field in 2011. Once Posada was relegated to hitting only left handed, against right handed pitching he performed surprisingly well posting a season ending line of .269/.348/.466/.353. Jones held up his side of the platoon as well, mashing lefties at a .400 wOBA clip. Although it took Girardi and others until mid June to figure out Posada/Jones were one trick ponies, the duo performed quite well from there on.
As Jorge rode off into the sunset this off season many fans assumed our DH production would increase greatly from 2011. Enter Raul Ibanez. Signed for $1.2 mil guaranteed with incentives that can allow him to make $4 mil, hes an inexpensive option but a tremendously flawed one as well. Ibanez' main duty is to be the lefty half of the DH platoon a la Posada post June 2011. Ibanez is nearing 40 and has clearly seen better days. His production has dropped significantly since career year in 2009. However, we can't really look at his overall value as a player anymore, as for us he has one use, hit righties. So lets try to see how well Ibanez can perform as Andruw's platoon partner.
Last season Ibanez posted just a .322 wOBA against righties, his lowest rate in quite some time. However, despite Citizens Bank park being heralded as a band box, the move to Yankee Stadium is a pleasant site for Raul. It has been estimated by some calculations such as Bill James' Handbook (small sample size warning) that Yankee Stadium increases left handed home run power by 43%. Wouldn't we like to see that as he hit 16 homers against righties last year, id sign up for 22 homers from a platoon DH any day. However, father time has more to say about his game than just moving to a new ballpark. Ibanez walked just 6.9% against righties, a career low mark. Couple that with an almost career high 15.6% K rate it is clear that swinging more often and swinging and missing more often has become a staple of his game. I just cannot imagine a man of his age/ability to rebound tremendously, although he has been relatively consistent over his big league career. Last years .256/.307/.440 line against righties is nothing special, but with park effects, age, and trends we should see about the same production as last year. We can hope for some BABIP improvement from the .268 figure of last year but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic.
Overall I find it hard to believe that Ibanez can match Posada's 2011 production against righties. Posada out wOBA'd him by 33 points, and I would be shocked if Ibanez can improve his game that much at age 40. So as bad as Posada seemed last year he actually was a useful player that could have been worth millions on the open market, evidenced by the Ibanez contract. All in all, we might have downgraded at DH for 2012 despite the praise of many for the Ibanez signing.
- Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs
As we all know the Yankees DH struggles were well documented last year. Jorge Posada took the brunt of the criticism as he had his worst hitting year of his career with a paltry .235/.315/.398 triple slash line. Jorge took most of the AB's at DH (344) but Andruw Jones also took a good amount of AB's against lefties (128) by seasons end, which matches the 70/30 RHP/LHP frequency. This wasn't an ideal situation by any means as many other AL teams finished with better DH production, but it was serviceable.
The platoon of Jones and Posada when examined further may not be as bad as it looked on the field in 2011. Once Posada was relegated to hitting only left handed, against right handed pitching he performed surprisingly well posting a season ending line of .269/.348/.466/.353. Jones held up his side of the platoon as well, mashing lefties at a .400 wOBA clip. Although it took Girardi and others until mid June to figure out Posada/Jones were one trick ponies, the duo performed quite well from there on.
As Jorge rode off into the sunset this off season many fans assumed our DH production would increase greatly from 2011. Enter Raul Ibanez. Signed for $1.2 mil guaranteed with incentives that can allow him to make $4 mil, hes an inexpensive option but a tremendously flawed one as well. Ibanez' main duty is to be the lefty half of the DH platoon a la Posada post June 2011. Ibanez is nearing 40 and has clearly seen better days. His production has dropped significantly since career year in 2009. However, we can't really look at his overall value as a player anymore, as for us he has one use, hit righties. So lets try to see how well Ibanez can perform as Andruw's platoon partner.
Last season Ibanez posted just a .322 wOBA against righties, his lowest rate in quite some time. However, despite Citizens Bank park being heralded as a band box, the move to Yankee Stadium is a pleasant site for Raul. It has been estimated by some calculations such as Bill James' Handbook (small sample size warning) that Yankee Stadium increases left handed home run power by 43%. Wouldn't we like to see that as he hit 16 homers against righties last year, id sign up for 22 homers from a platoon DH any day. However, father time has more to say about his game than just moving to a new ballpark. Ibanez walked just 6.9% against righties, a career low mark. Couple that with an almost career high 15.6% K rate it is clear that swinging more often and swinging and missing more often has become a staple of his game. I just cannot imagine a man of his age/ability to rebound tremendously, although he has been relatively consistent over his big league career. Last years .256/.307/.440 line against righties is nothing special, but with park effects, age, and trends we should see about the same production as last year. We can hope for some BABIP improvement from the .268 figure of last year but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic.
Overall I find it hard to believe that Ibanez can match Posada's 2011 production against righties. Posada out wOBA'd him by 33 points, and I would be shocked if Ibanez can improve his game that much at age 40. So as bad as Posada seemed last year he actually was a useful player that could have been worth millions on the open market, evidenced by the Ibanez contract. All in all, we might have downgraded at DH for 2012 despite the praise of many for the Ibanez signing.
- Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs
Friday, February 10, 2012
Losing Jesus: What Could Have Been
The center-piece in the trade that brought Michael Pineda to the Bronx was top prospect Jesus Montero. Montero was a beast offensively in the minors and hit well in his eighteen games in the big leagues. This won’t be looking at a Pineda/Montero comparison, but simply at Montero’s offensive ability. So what kind of players did the Yankees lose by shipping Montero to the Mariners?
I’m not expert in forecasting player’s abilities, but I compared Montero’s minor league numbers to those of the top 10 catchers by cumulative WAR from 2002-2011 in an effort to see how he stacks up. I only included players that had around as many at bats as Montero.
AAA Comparison
Aside from his plate discipline, Montero holds his own amongst this pool of players in AAA. No sample size will ever be enough, but the only player with a higher HR% was Jason Varitek, who had nearly 500 fewer at bats. On a side note, Jorge hit 14 triples in his AAA career.
A+ Comparison
In yet another small sample size for Montero in high A ball, he looks a little less stellar. He’s always had that mediocre walk percentage, nearly half of Jorge’s at that level. Romine is fairly similar to Montero at this level as well.
A Comparison
New to this level, is yet another Yankees catching prospect, Gary Sanchez. Sanchez, born in 1993, tore apart A pitching, and had a solid BB% as well.
Just one more graph, because I know everyone loves graphs.
This just shows Montero vs. the average at each level over time.
Montero stands up well against the likes of Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez, Brain McCann, etc. His minor league numbers suggest that he has the ability to match the production of an elite level catcher.
The only problem with this, of course, is that I am comparing him to catchers… The question is, can Montero survive at that position? Much has been discussed about his poor defensive play, and some question whether he should play catcher at the next level.
Bill James has Montero hitting 26 home runs this year, with a triple slash of .289/.351/.505 in 2012. Personally, this seems a little optimistic for a 22 year old with 18 major league games under his belt, despite the Mariners playing their away games in stadiums whose average HR park factor was slightly over 1 in 2011 (1.056937 to be exact – just trust me on the math). For context, Safeco’s HR factor was 1.037 last season. Also for reference, here is the list of names who hit 26 or more home runs at age 22. Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Hank Blalock, Jeff Francoeur, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols. This all being said, Montero’s scouting power rated a 75 - 80 (20-80 scale), so I can probably personally shut up now.
Offensively, the Yankees lost someone who could be the next Mike Piazza. But if Montero is relegated to DH or 1B in Seattle, which seems likely, his defensive delinquency continues (21% CS Rate), and Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez develop into solid players, the loss isn’t as substantial, and the question becomes, did the Yankees get the better side of the deal.
Ian Boehme
Ian Boehme
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Nick Swisher and Awesomeness:
Nick Swisher has won over the affection of many saber minded Yankee fans over the past three years. At the same time he has also ostracized himself from the great player discussion for many with a .160 postseason batting average with the Yanks. While it is easy for some to look only at the postseason production, it is important to remind ourselves how fortunate we are to have Nick.
Since the great Paul O'Neill left in 2001 it has been a struggle to fill the RF position in terms of both offensive and defensive production. We've seen the brash Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, and Bobby Abreu find some success, but not without drama and even worse defense. We've seen Eric Hinske, Aaron Guiel, Austin Kearns, Karim Garcia, and even Bubba Crosby get the nod in right. Since 2001 only three players have played 200+ games in right; Abreu, Sheffield, and Swisher. We caught "The Chef" and Bob in the twilight of their careers, we saw dreadful fielding in right with Sheffield posting a -39.5 UZR, and Abreu with an almost equally atrocious -28.7. While their offensive production was quite good (.370 wOBA for both players), their outfield defense continually hurt the team during the mid 2000's title drought.
Then, along came Nick Swisher. Brian Cashman is no stranger to dealing with White Sox GM Kenny Williams and he wasn't afraid to pull the trigger when Swish came on the market after a horrific start to his White Sox tenure. Wilson Betemit was a small price to pay for such a great buy-low candidate in Swish, and Cashman's research and aggressiveness paid off. Swish brought fun and excitement to a clubhouse that had been filled with far too many egotistical veterans. He also brought average defense which made him look like Willie Mays compared to right fielders past. Along with quality intangibles, Nick also brought patience, power, consistency and versatility. As a Yankee Swisher has provided the Yanks with an 11 win upgrade over replacement candidates such as Chris Dickerson and Greg Golson. His .267/.368/.486/.370 line is exactly the type of production we signed up for when we acquired Swish, a 13.3% walk rate also leads the team among qualified candidates since joining the squad. Swish is of course a switch hitter, posting a career wOBA of .350+ from both sides of the dish.
Aside from being a great player, we must also appreciate what a bargain Swish has been. First and foremost, we gave up only an aging utility player, Wilson Betemit, a useful player, but no Swish. Swish was acquired two years into his measly 5/$26 mil deal, a great contract negotiated by Billy Beane, but inexplicably dumped by Williams after just one season. The Yanks were on the hook for only three years and about 20 mil, with a 2012 option at just $10 mil. So how valuable has Nick Swisher been in terms of dollars and wins? Fangraphs can help us figure out his net worth.
2009- Paid $5.40 Mil, 3.2 WAR, Worth $14.2 Mil
2010- Paid $6.85 Mil, 4.1 WAR, Worth $16.4 Mil
2011- Paid $9.10 Mil, 3.8 WAR, Worth $17 Mil
2012- Paid $10.25 Mil, WAR ?, Worth ?
From 2009-2011 the Yanks have paid Swish just over $21 Million, but he has vastly outproduced his contract, as he has been worth about $47.6 Million over that time. The Yanks have essentially gotten premiere production at a bargain price as Swish has been the 7th most valuable RF from 2009-2011. While it is difficult in today's modern era to acquire players that will outperform their contract, the Yankees struck gold when they made this move and it has surely paid off.
Lastly let's try to project Swish for 2012, as many are pessimistic after watching him swing over low-and-away sliders in the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers. Swish has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, so projecting him shouldn't be too difficult as its unlikely to see too much variance from years past. Bill James, Rotochamp, and The Fans at Fangraphs all project Swish to put up about a .360 wOBA, right in line with his .357 career figure, with slightly above average fielding (2.0). I'll sign up for this any day, especially at the "bargain price" of $10 Mil. The Fans (which are usually a tad optimistic) project Nick to be worth 4.2 wins, so let's round down to 4 for ease. In today's game a win is usually worth $5-5.5 Mil, so to get Swish at just $2.5 Mil/Win is a pleasant sight. Swish's market value this year should be around $20 Mil, to get a player in his prime at half-price is a key to building a winner in 2012.
All in all we should be more appreciative of Swish. Between the walks, bombs, and pies-in-the-face, he is one of the most valuable Yankees in terms of $/wins. While many will scoff at the regular season numbers and only place weight on postseason production, we must remember that just 100 of 1,690 Swish's Yankee career AB's have come in the postseason. And while easy to judge a player in October, it truly is April-September that matters when evaluating a player. Of course some postseason magic would help his resume, but we should all step back and thank Nick for his great service.
- Alex Bardani
References: Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fangraphs.com
Nick Swisher has won over the affection of many saber minded Yankee fans over the past three years. At the same time he has also ostracized himself from the great player discussion for many with a .160 postseason batting average with the Yanks. While it is easy for some to look only at the postseason production, it is important to remind ourselves how fortunate we are to have Nick.
Since the great Paul O'Neill left in 2001 it has been a struggle to fill the RF position in terms of both offensive and defensive production. We've seen the brash Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, and Bobby Abreu find some success, but not without drama and even worse defense. We've seen Eric Hinske, Aaron Guiel, Austin Kearns, Karim Garcia, and even Bubba Crosby get the nod in right. Since 2001 only three players have played 200+ games in right; Abreu, Sheffield, and Swisher. We caught "The Chef" and Bob in the twilight of their careers, we saw dreadful fielding in right with Sheffield posting a -39.5 UZR, and Abreu with an almost equally atrocious -28.7. While their offensive production was quite good (.370 wOBA for both players), their outfield defense continually hurt the team during the mid 2000's title drought.
Then, along came Nick Swisher. Brian Cashman is no stranger to dealing with White Sox GM Kenny Williams and he wasn't afraid to pull the trigger when Swish came on the market after a horrific start to his White Sox tenure. Wilson Betemit was a small price to pay for such a great buy-low candidate in Swish, and Cashman's research and aggressiveness paid off. Swish brought fun and excitement to a clubhouse that had been filled with far too many egotistical veterans. He also brought average defense which made him look like Willie Mays compared to right fielders past. Along with quality intangibles, Nick also brought patience, power, consistency and versatility. As a Yankee Swisher has provided the Yanks with an 11 win upgrade over replacement candidates such as Chris Dickerson and Greg Golson. His .267/.368/.486/.370 line is exactly the type of production we signed up for when we acquired Swish, a 13.3% walk rate also leads the team among qualified candidates since joining the squad. Swish is of course a switch hitter, posting a career wOBA of .350+ from both sides of the dish.
Aside from being a great player, we must also appreciate what a bargain Swish has been. First and foremost, we gave up only an aging utility player, Wilson Betemit, a useful player, but no Swish. Swish was acquired two years into his measly 5/$26 mil deal, a great contract negotiated by Billy Beane, but inexplicably dumped by Williams after just one season. The Yanks were on the hook for only three years and about 20 mil, with a 2012 option at just $10 mil. So how valuable has Nick Swisher been in terms of dollars and wins? Fangraphs can help us figure out his net worth.
2009- Paid $5.40 Mil, 3.2 WAR, Worth $14.2 Mil
2010- Paid $6.85 Mil, 4.1 WAR, Worth $16.4 Mil
2011- Paid $9.10 Mil, 3.8 WAR, Worth $17 Mil
2012- Paid $10.25 Mil, WAR ?, Worth ?
From 2009-2011 the Yanks have paid Swish just over $21 Million, but he has vastly outproduced his contract, as he has been worth about $47.6 Million over that time. The Yanks have essentially gotten premiere production at a bargain price as Swish has been the 7th most valuable RF from 2009-2011. While it is difficult in today's modern era to acquire players that will outperform their contract, the Yankees struck gold when they made this move and it has surely paid off.
Lastly let's try to project Swish for 2012, as many are pessimistic after watching him swing over low-and-away sliders in the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers. Swish has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, so projecting him shouldn't be too difficult as its unlikely to see too much variance from years past. Bill James, Rotochamp, and The Fans at Fangraphs all project Swish to put up about a .360 wOBA, right in line with his .357 career figure, with slightly above average fielding (2.0). I'll sign up for this any day, especially at the "bargain price" of $10 Mil. The Fans (which are usually a tad optimistic) project Nick to be worth 4.2 wins, so let's round down to 4 for ease. In today's game a win is usually worth $5-5.5 Mil, so to get Swish at just $2.5 Mil/Win is a pleasant sight. Swish's market value this year should be around $20 Mil, to get a player in his prime at half-price is a key to building a winner in 2012.
All in all we should be more appreciative of Swish. Between the walks, bombs, and pies-in-the-face, he is one of the most valuable Yankees in terms of $/wins. While many will scoff at the regular season numbers and only place weight on postseason production, we must remember that just 100 of 1,690 Swish's Yankee career AB's have come in the postseason. And while easy to judge a player in October, it truly is April-September that matters when evaluating a player. Of course some postseason magic would help his resume, but we should all step back and thank Nick for his great service.
- Alex Bardani
References: Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fangraphs.com
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Rotation Upgrade: Pineda/Kuroda vs. Garcia/Colon
The Yankees biggest splash of the off season came pretty late as they made an upgrade to a starting rotation in dire need of repair. While the "throw junk on the wall and see what sticks" worked in the 2011 regular season, we all knew this rotation could not compete for a title. While Brian Cashman smartly stepped aside and let other teams overpay for FA starters like C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish, the Yankees scooped up a young stud with an average fastball of 96 MPH, and a reliable veteran who has compiled 8.5 wins in his last three seasons for the Dodgers. But how much of an upgrade will Pineda and Kuroda provide? After all Garcia and Colon (luck aside) provided the Yanks with just over 5 wins above replacement in 2011. Pineda and Kuroda were responsible for just .7 wins more than the veteran stop-gaps. As bad as the Yankees rotation seemed last year due to the quality/age/weight of the pitchers on the mound, it will actually be quite hard to duplicate. With Kuroda moving from the most run suppressed division in the game to the slugging AL East, and Pineda moving from cavernous Safeco to 'The Stadium', both pitchers could easily regress.
The most important factor here is realizing that Garcia and Colon's production was not repeatable by any measure in 2012, and the starting rotation needed to be addressed in the offseason. Colon faded down the stretch and while Garcia remained remarkably consistent. However, Freddy's 2.1 K/BB ratio and 8% HR/FB ratio (which is 3% below career average) do not bode well for a similar 3.62 ERA over 146 IP in 2012. Colon is now a member of the A's so projecting his performance is a moot point, but his production last year cannot be overlooked, and must be used to see how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on our second and third best starters last year.
Now lets look a little more at Garcia. If we use his xFIP as a better indicator of future performance, his 4.36 figure is a little more realistic. While this type of performance would be acceptable as a #4/#5 starter, it wasn't good enough to bring the Yanks a title in 2011. Although providing solid production, it would be foolish to think Garcia can repeat/improve his 2011 numbers. Overall, while both players were quite valuable in 2011, there is little evidence to show they could replicate that performance.
Lets take a look at all four pitcher's 2011 production to try to predict how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on the Yanks #2 and #3 starters production in 2012.
2011:
Colon: 164.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 2.9 WAR
Garcia: 146.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 2.2 WAR
Pineda: 171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 3.4 WAR
Kuroda: 202 IP, 3.07 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
At first glance this looks like a clear upgrade for the Yanks, their newly acquired starters will surely outproduce the guys found off the scrap heap last year right? The answer, maybe not as obvious as it seems. We must adjust for league and park effects to accurate predict their 2012 value. We will use some projections and common sense to see how much the Yanks stand to improve.
Projections are inherently flawed, but in February its all we've got so let's speculate. Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released some projections of what can be expected of Pineda and Kuroda, which can be found here. Basically it projects Kuroda (3.1) and Pineda (3.2) to be equally valuable in 2012. This is right in with Kuroda's value over the past few seasons, and Pineda might stand to regress a touch in a tougher division and home ballpark. Of course there is varying room for improvement and regression with both pitchers maxing out at about 5 wins and bottoming out near 1.5 wins. If we assume the baseline projections we come up with 6.3 wins, about one win more than the #2 and #3 starters last year.
However, the addition of these pitchers add value because Phil Hughes/AJ Burnett will be exiled from the rotation. With Nova and Garcia (projected 4.2 wins) instead of Hughes/Burnett (projected 1.8 wins), the Yanks look to have added about three wins by adding these pitchers. Cashman should also be praised for conserving funds and using tools within the organization to fill holes on the roster instead of writing checks to players off of career years.
Overall the Yankees do not seem to gain an immense upgrade over Garcia and Colon's surprising 2011 performance, but they do stand to reap the rewards of removing weak links from the rotation. I think we can see about a three game improvement in this department, hopefully aided by another great defensive performance like in 2011. Let's hope these additions can propel us to the top in the tough AL East where every game counts.
-Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs.com, Replacement Level Yankees Blog
The Yankees biggest splash of the off season came pretty late as they made an upgrade to a starting rotation in dire need of repair. While the "throw junk on the wall and see what sticks" worked in the 2011 regular season, we all knew this rotation could not compete for a title. While Brian Cashman smartly stepped aside and let other teams overpay for FA starters like C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish, the Yankees scooped up a young stud with an average fastball of 96 MPH, and a reliable veteran who has compiled 8.5 wins in his last three seasons for the Dodgers. But how much of an upgrade will Pineda and Kuroda provide? After all Garcia and Colon (luck aside) provided the Yanks with just over 5 wins above replacement in 2011. Pineda and Kuroda were responsible for just .7 wins more than the veteran stop-gaps. As bad as the Yankees rotation seemed last year due to the quality/age/weight of the pitchers on the mound, it will actually be quite hard to duplicate. With Kuroda moving from the most run suppressed division in the game to the slugging AL East, and Pineda moving from cavernous Safeco to 'The Stadium', both pitchers could easily regress.
The most important factor here is realizing that Garcia and Colon's production was not repeatable by any measure in 2012, and the starting rotation needed to be addressed in the offseason. Colon faded down the stretch and while Garcia remained remarkably consistent. However, Freddy's 2.1 K/BB ratio and 8% HR/FB ratio (which is 3% below career average) do not bode well for a similar 3.62 ERA over 146 IP in 2012. Colon is now a member of the A's so projecting his performance is a moot point, but his production last year cannot be overlooked, and must be used to see how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on our second and third best starters last year.
Now lets look a little more at Garcia. If we use his xFIP as a better indicator of future performance, his 4.36 figure is a little more realistic. While this type of performance would be acceptable as a #4/#5 starter, it wasn't good enough to bring the Yanks a title in 2011. Although providing solid production, it would be foolish to think Garcia can repeat/improve his 2011 numbers. Overall, while both players were quite valuable in 2011, there is little evidence to show they could replicate that performance.
Lets take a look at all four pitcher's 2011 production to try to predict how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on the Yanks #2 and #3 starters production in 2012.
2011:
Colon: 164.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 2.9 WAR
Garcia: 146.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 2.2 WAR
Pineda: 171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 3.4 WAR
Kuroda: 202 IP, 3.07 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
At first glance this looks like a clear upgrade for the Yanks, their newly acquired starters will surely outproduce the guys found off the scrap heap last year right? The answer, maybe not as obvious as it seems. We must adjust for league and park effects to accurate predict their 2012 value. We will use some projections and common sense to see how much the Yanks stand to improve.
Projections are inherently flawed, but in February its all we've got so let's speculate. Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released some projections of what can be expected of Pineda and Kuroda, which can be found here. Basically it projects Kuroda (3.1) and Pineda (3.2) to be equally valuable in 2012. This is right in with Kuroda's value over the past few seasons, and Pineda might stand to regress a touch in a tougher division and home ballpark. Of course there is varying room for improvement and regression with both pitchers maxing out at about 5 wins and bottoming out near 1.5 wins. If we assume the baseline projections we come up with 6.3 wins, about one win more than the #2 and #3 starters last year.
However, the addition of these pitchers add value because Phil Hughes/AJ Burnett will be exiled from the rotation. With Nova and Garcia (projected 4.2 wins) instead of Hughes/Burnett (projected 1.8 wins), the Yanks look to have added about three wins by adding these pitchers. Cashman should also be praised for conserving funds and using tools within the organization to fill holes on the roster instead of writing checks to players off of career years.
Overall the Yankees do not seem to gain an immense upgrade over Garcia and Colon's surprising 2011 performance, but they do stand to reap the rewards of removing weak links from the rotation. I think we can see about a three game improvement in this department, hopefully aided by another great defensive performance like in 2011. Let's hope these additions can propel us to the top in the tough AL East where every game counts.
-Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs.com, Replacement Level Yankees Blog
Friday, February 3, 2012
Welcome!
New York Dankees is a blog by Alex Bardani all about your New York Yankees. My goal is to provide (sometimes objective/sometimes homer) analysis from the perspective of a life-long Yankee fan with a great deal of sabermetric analysis. Feel free to discuss any NYY topics or suggest articles you would like to see on the blog. Thanks to all and GO YANKS!
New York Dankees is a blog by Alex Bardani all about your New York Yankees. My goal is to provide (sometimes objective/sometimes homer) analysis from the perspective of a life-long Yankee fan with a great deal of sabermetric analysis. Feel free to discuss any NYY topics or suggest articles you would like to see on the blog. Thanks to all and GO YANKS!
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