Thursday, February 9, 2012

Nick Swisher and Awesomeness:

Nick Swisher has won over the affection of many saber minded Yankee fans over the past three years. At the same time he has also ostracized himself from the great player discussion for many with a .160 postseason batting average with the Yanks.  While it is easy for some to look only at the postseason production, it is important to remind ourselves how fortunate we are to have Nick.

Since the great Paul O'Neill left in 2001 it has been a struggle to fill the RF position in terms of both offensive and defensive production.  We've seen the brash Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, and Bobby Abreu find some success, but not without drama and even worse defense.  We've seen Eric Hinske, Aaron Guiel, Austin Kearns, Karim Garcia, and even Bubba Crosby get the nod in right.  Since 2001 only three players have played 200+ games in right; Abreu, Sheffield, and Swisher.  We caught "The Chef" and Bob in the twilight of their careers, we saw dreadful fielding in right with Sheffield posting a -39.5 UZR, and Abreu with an almost equally atrocious -28.7.  While their offensive production was quite good (.370 wOBA for both players), their outfield defense continually hurt the team during the mid 2000's title drought.

Then, along came Nick Swisher.  Brian Cashman is no stranger to dealing with White Sox GM Kenny Williams and he wasn't afraid to pull the trigger when Swish came on the market after a horrific start to his White Sox tenure.  Wilson Betemit was a small price to pay for such a great buy-low candidate in Swish, and Cashman's research and aggressiveness paid off.  Swish brought fun and excitement to a clubhouse that had been filled with far too many egotistical veterans.  He also brought average defense which made him look like Willie Mays compared to right fielders past.  Along with quality intangibles, Nick also brought patience, power, consistency and versatility.  As a Yankee Swisher has provided the Yanks with an 11 win upgrade over replacement candidates such as Chris Dickerson and Greg Golson.  His .267/.368/.486/.370 line is exactly the type of production we signed up for when we acquired Swish, a 13.3% walk rate also leads the team among qualified candidates since joining the squad.  Swish is of course a switch hitter, posting a career wOBA of .350+ from both sides of the dish.

Aside from being a great player, we must also appreciate what a bargain Swish has been. First and foremost, we gave up only an aging utility player, Wilson Betemit, a useful player, but no Swish.  Swish was acquired two years into his measly 5/$26 mil deal, a great contract negotiated by Billy Beane, but inexplicably dumped by Williams after just one season.  The Yanks were on the hook for only three years and about 20 mil, with a 2012 option at just $10 mil.  So how valuable has Nick Swisher been in terms of dollars and wins?  Fangraphs can help us figure out his net worth.

2009- Paid $5.40 Mil, 3.2 WAR, Worth $14.2 Mil
2010- Paid $6.85 Mil, 4.1 WAR, Worth $16.4 Mil
2011- Paid $9.10 Mil, 3.8 WAR, Worth $17 Mil
2012- Paid $10.25 Mil, WAR ?, Worth ?

From 2009-2011 the Yanks have paid Swish just over $21 Million, but he has vastly outproduced his contract, as he has been worth about $47.6 Million over that time.  The Yanks have essentially gotten premiere production at a bargain price as Swish has been the 7th most valuable RF from 2009-2011.  While it is difficult in today's modern era to acquire players that will outperform their contract, the Yankees struck gold when they made this move and it has surely paid off.

Lastly let's try to project Swish for 2012, as many are pessimistic after watching him swing over low-and-away sliders in the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers.  Swish has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, so projecting him shouldn't be too difficult as its unlikely to see too much variance from years past.  Bill James, Rotochamp, and The Fans at Fangraphs all project Swish to put up about a .360 wOBA, right in line with his .357 career figure, with slightly above average fielding (2.0).  I'll sign up for this any day, especially at the "bargain price" of $10 Mil.  The Fans (which are usually a tad optimistic) project Nick to be worth 4.2 wins, so let's round down to 4 for ease.  In today's game a win is usually worth $5-5.5 Mil, so to get Swish at just $2.5 Mil/Win is a pleasant sight.  Swish's market value this year should be around $20 Mil, to get a player in his prime at half-price is a key to building a winner in 2012.

All in all we should be more appreciative of Swish.  Between the walks, bombs, and pies-in-the-face, he is one of the most valuable Yankees in terms of $/wins.  While many will scoff at the regular season numbers and only place weight on postseason production, we must remember that just 100 of 1,690 Swish's Yankee career AB's have come in the postseason.  And while easy to judge a player in October, it truly is April-September that matters when evaluating a player.  Of course some postseason magic would help his resume, but we should all step back and thank Nick for his great service.

- Alex Bardani



References: Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fangraphs.com

1 comment:

  1. Nice to see Swisher was able to counter-act his BABIP regression (.335 2010 -> .295 2011 (career .287)) by walking a lot more (9.1% 2010 -> 15% 2011 (career 13.5%)).

    Additionally, http://baseballplayersalaries.com/players/46_Nick_Swisher

    Nick Swisher saved $396,416 because the Bush tax cuts were extended, so there is always that.

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