A Look at the (Kinda) New Line-up


Not too much has changed from last years lineup that produced 869 runs, the second most in baseball only bested by the rival Red Sox.  Let's preview the line-up and see how Girardi might be inclined to move some bats around.  The Yanks have embraced the platoon DH split, but with premiere to above average bats at every position most Yankees will be in the line up 155+ games this year.  Let's see how the lineup will shape up against right handed and left handed pitching.

Projected Line up vs. RHP (2011 wOBA vs. RHP)

Jeter, R (.298)
Granderson, L (.388)
Cano, L (.373)
Rodriguez, R (.369)
Teixeira, S (.337)
Swisher, S (.335)
Ibanez, L (.322)
Martin, R (.330)
Gardner, L (.328)

Not too shabby.  This lineup will be in use roughly 70% of the time, and it's a good one.  The Yankees are one of the few teams who can trot out 8/9 .320+ wOBA guys, and this is primarily where they do their damage.  Of course we would all love to see Gardner and Jeter switch places against righties, but its an afterthought as Girardi respects Jeter too much to pencil him in at the bottom of the lineup on four of six days of the week. Even with Jeter stinking it up at the top and doing anything but setting the table for the rest of the order, this lineup actually could improve against RHP's in 2012.  Jeter looked better down the stretch and began to finally get the ball airborne against RHP's, while his career .344 wOBA against RHP's may be a thing of the past, hopefully the Captain can rebound to the .310/.320 range and provide some on base skills for the mashers behind him.  Granderson and Cano are pretty self explanatory as they will surely continue to rake against RHP's.  A Rod is an interesting case as he hit righties far better than lefties (.369 vs. .333), with health hopefully on his side he can replicate these numbers.  Teixeira is the real wild card in this lineup as last year his .337 wOBA was flat out not good enough to justify his contract.  Tex has already admitted his deficiency against RHP's and has vowed to work with Kevin Long to lessen the uppercut designed to send balls into the short 3rd deck in right, and instead begin to spray the ball circa 2007.  With just a .222 BABIP vs. RHP's, we can expect some serious improvement to the mean of about .300, this should boost his numbers and make the Yankees even more dominant vs. RHP's in 2012.  While Swisher can been better hitting left handed throughout his career (.377 vs. .350), I expect his .335 figure to improve to his career average of .350 once again due to an unusually low BABIP of .259.  Ibanez was brought in solely to hit RHP's as the left handed hitting portion of the DH platoon.  I've covered his expectations more in depth for 2012 in an earlier article so feel free to check that out.  Martin figures to produce about the same as his 2011 numbers are right in line with his career figures.  Gardner, while in a perfect world would be getting on base at a .360+ clip atop the line up will unfortunately hit 9th even against RHP's unless Girardi wants to slide everyone down one spot (don't hold your breath).  It really is a shame that one of the Yankee biggest assets of on base skills and speed is wasted at the bottom of the order, but life isn't fair and neither is baseball.  With Eric Chavez as a PH option off the bench, (2011 wOBA of .298) we have some insurance against a tight spot late in games.  With a solid L/R/S mix, the Yanks figure to mash righties once again in 2012.


Projected Line up vs. LHP (2011 wOBA vs. LHP)

Jeter, R (.413)
Granderson, L (.400)
Cano, L (.373)
Rodriguez, R (.333)
Teixeira, S (.410)
Swisher, S (.412)
Jones, R (.400)
Martin, R (.305)
Gardner, L (.290)

Those are some good looking wOBA's against LHP's.  Unfortunately for the Yankees they will only see a lefty on the hill about 30% of the time, maybe slightly more with the bevy of left handed pitching in the AL East.  Jeter shined against LHP's in 2011 posting a .400+ wOBA, certainly his skills match up with a typical leadoff hitter here as he got on base at a .423 clip.  Granderson had a revival against LHP's in 2011.  A career .301 wOBA hitter against LHP's his number soared, and it wasn't a BABIP function (.301) or seemingly any other peripheral stat.  Instead it seems to be his swing as he looked far more comfortable and kept both hands on the bat longer through the zone allowing him to pull the ball with much better power as he slugged .200 points better than his career average in 2011.  Cano will most likely put up similar numbers as his game is rock solid and peaking going into his age 29 season.  A Rod seems poised for a bounce back against LHP's in 2012 as his 2011 numbers were simply not good enough.  A healthy hip should allow him to get his bat through the zone better and hit for more power than in 2011, just a .383 SLG against LHP's.  I'm thinking more homers into the left field seats and more doubles into death valley in 2012.  Teixeira need not work on his right handed stroke as he mashed lefties in 2011 and will surely continue to do so in 2012.  Same goes for Swish as he has always hit lefties better, while .412 might be tough to replicate (.377 career), I still expect similar production going forward as he loves the short RF porch.  Andruw Jones was a monster down the stretch, saving the Yanks from letting Posada hit lefties, and posting a .400 wOBA.  While this will be tough to replicate, he has posted .400+ in back to back seasons against LHP, once in 2010 with a miniscule .237 BABIP, and once in 2011 with an enormous .356 BABIP.  Jones should find a happy medium and look to contribute a .375+ wOBA in about 150-200 PA's.  Martin surprisingly hit righties better than lefties in 2011.  Look for his numbers to jump up, ideally to his career figure of .361.  Gardner is in the lineup vs. lefties solely for his glove/speed, which is more than fine with me, but he belongs at the bottom, creating the often talked about "circular lineup".  Eduardo Nunez is also a capable PH option late in games as well, posting a .321 wOBA agaist LHP's.

Overall I expect the Yanks to put up huge offensive numbers in 2012.  Maybe approach the 900 run plateau with some bouncebacks vs. RHP's.  While the lineup Girardi will pencil in every day isn't ideal, the only changes I would make is Gardner lead off vs. RHP's with Jeter at the bottom of the order, and let Tex hit 4th against LHP's and bump A Rod to 5th.  While this seems unlikely to happen, by mid season things could change based on production.  The Yankees look to top MLB in runs scored in 2012, and I think it could very well happen.

- Alex Bardani

References: Fangraphs