Losing Jesus: What Could Have Been

The center-piece in the trade that brought Michael Pineda to the Bronx was top prospect Jesus Montero. Montero was a beast offensively in the minors and hit well in his eighteen games in the big leagues. This won’t be looking at a Pineda/Montero comparison, but simply at Montero’s offensive ability. So what kind of players did the Yankees lose by shipping Montero to the Mariners?

I’m not expert in forecasting player’s abilities, but I compared Montero’s minor league numbers to those of the top 10 catchers by cumulative WAR from 2002-2011 in an effort to see how he stacks up. I only included players that had around as many at bats as Montero.

AAA Comparison

Aside from his plate discipline, Montero holds his own amongst this pool of players in AAA. No sample size will ever be enough, but the only player with a higher HR% was Jason Varitek, who had nearly 500 fewer at bats. On a side note, Jorge hit 14 triples in his AAA career.

AA Comparison

Montero has a very small sample size in this group, but the three percentages I’m concerned with (BB%, XBH%, and HR%) were in line with his AAA percentages, and stacks up well against the others in the group. No surprise to see Pudge walking at a 3.54% clip. Also making an appearance is another top Yankee prospect, Austin Romine, who now succeeds Montero as the Yankees catcher of the future. Romine, in a larger sample size, didn’t perform as well as Montero in AA.

A+ Comparison

In yet another small sample size for Montero in high A ball, he looks a little less stellar. He’s always had that mediocre walk percentage, nearly half of Jorge’s at that level. Romine is fairly similar to Montero at this level as well.

A Comparison

New to this level, is yet another Yankees catching prospect, Gary Sanchez. Sanchez, born in 1993, tore apart A pitching, and had a solid BB% as well.

Just one more graph, because I know everyone loves graphs.

This just shows Montero vs. the average at each level over time.

Montero stands up well against the likes of Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez, Brain McCann, etc. His minor league numbers suggest that he has the ability to match the production of an elite level catcher.

The only problem with this, of course, is that I am comparing him to catchers… The question is, can Montero survive at that position? Much has been discussed about his poor defensive play, and some question whether he should play catcher at the next level.

Bill James has Montero hitting 26 home runs this year, with a triple slash of .289/.351/.505 in 2012. Personally, this seems a little optimistic for a 22 year old with 18 major league games under his belt, despite the Mariners playing their away games in stadiums whose average HR park factor was slightly over 1 in 2011 (1.056937 to be exact – just trust me on the math). For context, Safeco’s HR factor was 1.037 last season. Also for reference, here is the list of names who hit 26 or more home runs at age 22. Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Hank Blalock, Jeff Francoeur, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols. This all being said, Montero’s scouting power rated a 75 - 80 (20-80 scale), so I can probably personally shut up now.

Offensively, the Yankees lost someone who could be the next Mike Piazza. But if Montero is relegated to DH or 1B in Seattle, which seems likely, his defensive delinquency continues (21% CS Rate), and Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez develop into solid players, the loss isn’t as substantial, and the question becomes, did the Yankees get the better side of the deal.


Ian Boehme