Rotation Upgrade: Pineda/Kuroda vs. Garcia/Colon

The Yankees biggest splash of the off season came pretty late as they made an upgrade to a starting rotation in dire need of repair.  While the "throw junk on the wall and see what sticks" worked in the 2011 regular season, we all knew this rotation could not compete for a title.  While Brian Cashman smartly stepped aside and let other teams overpay for FA starters like C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish, the Yankees scooped up a young stud with an average fastball of 96 MPH, and a reliable veteran who has compiled 8.5 wins in his last three seasons for the Dodgers.  But how much of an upgrade will Pineda and Kuroda provide? After all Garcia and Colon (luck aside) provided the Yanks with just over 5 wins above replacement in 2011.  Pineda and Kuroda were responsible for just .7 wins more than the veteran stop-gaps. As bad as the Yankees rotation seemed last year due to the quality/age/weight of the pitchers on the mound, it will actually be quite hard to duplicate.  With Kuroda moving from the most run suppressed division in the game to the slugging AL East, and Pineda moving from cavernous Safeco to 'The Stadium', both pitchers could easily regress.

The most important factor here is realizing that Garcia and Colon's production was not repeatable by any measure in 2012, and the starting rotation needed to be addressed in the offseason.  Colon faded down the stretch and while Garcia remained remarkably consistent. However, Freddy's 2.1 K/BB ratio and 8% HR/FB ratio (which is 3% below career average) do not bode well for a similar 3.62 ERA over 146 IP in 2012.  Colon is now a member of the A's so projecting his performance is a moot point, but his production last year cannot be overlooked, and must be used to see how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on our second and third best starters last year.

Now lets look a little more at Garcia.  If we use his xFIP as a better indicator of future performance, his 4.36 figure is a little more realistic.  While this type of performance would be acceptable as a #4/#5 starter, it wasn't good enough to bring the Yanks a title in 2011.  Although providing solid production, it would be foolish to think Garcia can repeat/improve his 2011 numbers.  Overall, while both players were quite valuable in 2011, there is little evidence to show they could replicate that performance.

Lets take a look at all four pitcher's 2011 production to try to predict how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on the Yanks #2 and #3 starters production in 2012.

2011:
Colon: 164.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 2.9 WAR
Garcia: 146.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 2.2 WAR

Pineda: 171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 3.4 WAR
Kuroda: 202 IP, 3.07 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 2.4 WAR

At first glance this looks like a clear upgrade for the Yanks, their newly acquired starters will surely outproduce the guys found off the scrap heap last year right? The answer, maybe not as obvious as it seems.  We must adjust for league and park effects to accurate predict their 2012 value. We will use some projections and common sense to see how much the Yanks stand to improve.

Projections are inherently flawed, but in February its all we've got so let's speculate.  Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released some projections of what can be expected of Pineda and Kuroda, which can be found here.  Basically it projects Kuroda (3.1) and Pineda (3.2) to be equally valuable in 2012.  This is right in with Kuroda's value over the past few seasons, and Pineda might stand to regress a touch in a tougher division and home ballpark.  Of course there is varying room for improvement and regression with both pitchers maxing out at about 5 wins and bottoming out near 1.5 wins. If we assume the baseline projections we come up with 6.3 wins, about one win more than the #2 and #3 starters last year.

However, the addition of these pitchers add value because Phil Hughes/AJ Burnett will be exiled from the rotation.  With Nova and Garcia (projected 4.2 wins) instead of Hughes/Burnett (projected 1.8 wins), the Yanks look to have added about three wins by adding these pitchers.  Cashman should also be praised for conserving funds and using tools within the organization to fill holes on the roster instead of writing checks to players off of career years.

Overall the Yankees do not seem to gain an immense upgrade over Garcia and Colon's surprising 2011 performance, but they do stand to reap the rewards of removing weak links from the rotation.  I think we can see about a three game improvement in this department, hopefully aided by another great defensive performance like in 2011.  Let's hope these additions can propel us to the top in the tough AL East where every game counts.

-Alex Bardani


References: Fangraphs.com, Replacement Level Yankees Blog