DH Downgrade?
As we all know the Yankees DH struggles were well documented last year. Jorge Posada took the brunt of the criticism as he had his worst hitting year of his career with a paltry .235/.315/.398 triple slash line. Jorge took most of the AB's at DH (344) but Andruw Jones also took a good amount of AB's against lefties (128) by seasons end, which matches the 70/30 RHP/LHP frequency. This wasn't an ideal situation by any means as many other AL teams finished with better DH production, but it was serviceable.
The platoon of Jones and Posada when examined further may not be as bad as it looked on the field in 2011. Once Posada was relegated to hitting only left handed, against right handed pitching he performed surprisingly well posting a season ending line of .269/.348/.466/.353. Jones held up his side of the platoon as well, mashing lefties at a .400 wOBA clip. Although it took Girardi and others until mid June to figure out Posada/Jones were one trick ponies, the duo performed quite well from there on.
As Jorge rode off into the sunset this off season many fans assumed our DH production would increase greatly from 2011. Enter Raul Ibanez. Signed for $1.2 mil guaranteed with incentives that can allow him to make $4 mil, hes an inexpensive option but a tremendously flawed one as well. Ibanez' main duty is to be the lefty half of the DH platoon a la Posada post June 2011. Ibanez is nearing 40 and has clearly seen better days. His production has dropped significantly since career year in 2009. However, we can't really look at his overall value as a player anymore, as for us he has one use, hit righties. So lets try to see how well Ibanez can perform as Andruw's platoon partner.
Last season Ibanez posted just a .322 wOBA against righties, his lowest rate in quite some time. However, despite Citizens Bank park being heralded as a band box, the move to Yankee Stadium is a pleasant site for Raul. It has been estimated by some calculations such as Bill James' Handbook (small sample size warning) that Yankee Stadium increases left handed home run power by 43%. Wouldn't we like to see that as he hit 16 homers against righties last year, id sign up for 22 homers from a platoon DH any day. However, father time has more to say about his game than just moving to a new ballpark. Ibanez walked just 6.9% against righties, a career low mark. Couple that with an almost career high 15.6% K rate it is clear that swinging more often and swinging and missing more often has become a staple of his game. I just cannot imagine a man of his age/ability to rebound tremendously, although he has been relatively consistent over his big league career. Last years .256/.307/.440 line against righties is nothing special, but with park effects, age, and trends we should see about the same production as last year. We can hope for some BABIP improvement from the .268 figure of last year but I wouldn't expect anything too dramatic.
Overall I find it hard to believe that Ibanez can match Posada's 2011 production against righties. Posada out wOBA'd him by 33 points, and I would be shocked if Ibanez can improve his game that much at age 40. So as bad as Posada seemed last year he actually was a useful player that could have been worth millions on the open market, evidenced by the Ibanez contract. All in all, we might have downgraded at DH for 2012 despite the praise of many for the Ibanez signing.
- Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Friday, February 10, 2012
Losing Jesus: What Could Have Been
The center-piece in the trade that brought Michael Pineda to the Bronx was top prospect Jesus Montero. Montero was a beast offensively in the minors and hit well in his eighteen games in the big leagues. This won’t be looking at a Pineda/Montero comparison, but simply at Montero’s offensive ability. So what kind of players did the Yankees lose by shipping Montero to the Mariners?
I’m not expert in forecasting player’s abilities, but I compared Montero’s minor league numbers to those of the top 10 catchers by cumulative WAR from 2002-2011 in an effort to see how he stacks up. I only included players that had around as many at bats as Montero.
AAA Comparison
Aside from his plate discipline, Montero holds his own amongst this pool of players in AAA. No sample size will ever be enough, but the only player with a higher HR% was Jason Varitek, who had nearly 500 fewer at bats. On a side note, Jorge hit 14 triples in his AAA career.
A+ Comparison
In yet another small sample size for Montero in high A ball, he looks a little less stellar. He’s always had that mediocre walk percentage, nearly half of Jorge’s at that level. Romine is fairly similar to Montero at this level as well.
A Comparison
New to this level, is yet another Yankees catching prospect, Gary Sanchez. Sanchez, born in 1993, tore apart A pitching, and had a solid BB% as well.
Just one more graph, because I know everyone loves graphs.
This just shows Montero vs. the average at each level over time.
Montero stands up well against the likes of Mike Piazza, Jason Varitek, Victor Martinez, Brain McCann, etc. His minor league numbers suggest that he has the ability to match the production of an elite level catcher.
The only problem with this, of course, is that I am comparing him to catchers… The question is, can Montero survive at that position? Much has been discussed about his poor defensive play, and some question whether he should play catcher at the next level.
Bill James has Montero hitting 26 home runs this year, with a triple slash of .289/.351/.505 in 2012. Personally, this seems a little optimistic for a 22 year old with 18 major league games under his belt, despite the Mariners playing their away games in stadiums whose average HR park factor was slightly over 1 in 2011 (1.056937 to be exact – just trust me on the math). For context, Safeco’s HR factor was 1.037 last season. Also for reference, here is the list of names who hit 26 or more home runs at age 22. Adam Dunn, Wily Mo Pena, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Prince Fielder, Hank Blalock, Jeff Francoeur, Miguel Cabrera, and Albert Pujols. This all being said, Montero’s scouting power rated a 75 - 80 (20-80 scale), so I can probably personally shut up now.
Offensively, the Yankees lost someone who could be the next Mike Piazza. But if Montero is relegated to DH or 1B in Seattle, which seems likely, his defensive delinquency continues (21% CS Rate), and Austin Romine or Gary Sanchez develop into solid players, the loss isn’t as substantial, and the question becomes, did the Yankees get the better side of the deal.
Ian Boehme
Ian Boehme
Thursday, February 9, 2012
Nick Swisher and Awesomeness:
Nick Swisher has won over the affection of many saber minded Yankee fans over the past three years. At the same time he has also ostracized himself from the great player discussion for many with a .160 postseason batting average with the Yanks. While it is easy for some to look only at the postseason production, it is important to remind ourselves how fortunate we are to have Nick.
Since the great Paul O'Neill left in 2001 it has been a struggle to fill the RF position in terms of both offensive and defensive production. We've seen the brash Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, and Bobby Abreu find some success, but not without drama and even worse defense. We've seen Eric Hinske, Aaron Guiel, Austin Kearns, Karim Garcia, and even Bubba Crosby get the nod in right. Since 2001 only three players have played 200+ games in right; Abreu, Sheffield, and Swisher. We caught "The Chef" and Bob in the twilight of their careers, we saw dreadful fielding in right with Sheffield posting a -39.5 UZR, and Abreu with an almost equally atrocious -28.7. While their offensive production was quite good (.370 wOBA for both players), their outfield defense continually hurt the team during the mid 2000's title drought.
Then, along came Nick Swisher. Brian Cashman is no stranger to dealing with White Sox GM Kenny Williams and he wasn't afraid to pull the trigger when Swish came on the market after a horrific start to his White Sox tenure. Wilson Betemit was a small price to pay for such a great buy-low candidate in Swish, and Cashman's research and aggressiveness paid off. Swish brought fun and excitement to a clubhouse that had been filled with far too many egotistical veterans. He also brought average defense which made him look like Willie Mays compared to right fielders past. Along with quality intangibles, Nick also brought patience, power, consistency and versatility. As a Yankee Swisher has provided the Yanks with an 11 win upgrade over replacement candidates such as Chris Dickerson and Greg Golson. His .267/.368/.486/.370 line is exactly the type of production we signed up for when we acquired Swish, a 13.3% walk rate also leads the team among qualified candidates since joining the squad. Swish is of course a switch hitter, posting a career wOBA of .350+ from both sides of the dish.
Aside from being a great player, we must also appreciate what a bargain Swish has been. First and foremost, we gave up only an aging utility player, Wilson Betemit, a useful player, but no Swish. Swish was acquired two years into his measly 5/$26 mil deal, a great contract negotiated by Billy Beane, but inexplicably dumped by Williams after just one season. The Yanks were on the hook for only three years and about 20 mil, with a 2012 option at just $10 mil. So how valuable has Nick Swisher been in terms of dollars and wins? Fangraphs can help us figure out his net worth.
2009- Paid $5.40 Mil, 3.2 WAR, Worth $14.2 Mil
2010- Paid $6.85 Mil, 4.1 WAR, Worth $16.4 Mil
2011- Paid $9.10 Mil, 3.8 WAR, Worth $17 Mil
2012- Paid $10.25 Mil, WAR ?, Worth ?
From 2009-2011 the Yanks have paid Swish just over $21 Million, but he has vastly outproduced his contract, as he has been worth about $47.6 Million over that time. The Yanks have essentially gotten premiere production at a bargain price as Swish has been the 7th most valuable RF from 2009-2011. While it is difficult in today's modern era to acquire players that will outperform their contract, the Yankees struck gold when they made this move and it has surely paid off.
Lastly let's try to project Swish for 2012, as many are pessimistic after watching him swing over low-and-away sliders in the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers. Swish has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, so projecting him shouldn't be too difficult as its unlikely to see too much variance from years past. Bill James, Rotochamp, and The Fans at Fangraphs all project Swish to put up about a .360 wOBA, right in line with his .357 career figure, with slightly above average fielding (2.0). I'll sign up for this any day, especially at the "bargain price" of $10 Mil. The Fans (which are usually a tad optimistic) project Nick to be worth 4.2 wins, so let's round down to 4 for ease. In today's game a win is usually worth $5-5.5 Mil, so to get Swish at just $2.5 Mil/Win is a pleasant sight. Swish's market value this year should be around $20 Mil, to get a player in his prime at half-price is a key to building a winner in 2012.
All in all we should be more appreciative of Swish. Between the walks, bombs, and pies-in-the-face, he is one of the most valuable Yankees in terms of $/wins. While many will scoff at the regular season numbers and only place weight on postseason production, we must remember that just 100 of 1,690 Swish's Yankee career AB's have come in the postseason. And while easy to judge a player in October, it truly is April-September that matters when evaluating a player. Of course some postseason magic would help his resume, but we should all step back and thank Nick for his great service.
- Alex Bardani
References: Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fangraphs.com
Nick Swisher has won over the affection of many saber minded Yankee fans over the past three years. At the same time he has also ostracized himself from the great player discussion for many with a .160 postseason batting average with the Yanks. While it is easy for some to look only at the postseason production, it is important to remind ourselves how fortunate we are to have Nick.
Since the great Paul O'Neill left in 2001 it has been a struggle to fill the RF position in terms of both offensive and defensive production. We've seen the brash Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, and Bobby Abreu find some success, but not without drama and even worse defense. We've seen Eric Hinske, Aaron Guiel, Austin Kearns, Karim Garcia, and even Bubba Crosby get the nod in right. Since 2001 only three players have played 200+ games in right; Abreu, Sheffield, and Swisher. We caught "The Chef" and Bob in the twilight of their careers, we saw dreadful fielding in right with Sheffield posting a -39.5 UZR, and Abreu with an almost equally atrocious -28.7. While their offensive production was quite good (.370 wOBA for both players), their outfield defense continually hurt the team during the mid 2000's title drought.
Then, along came Nick Swisher. Brian Cashman is no stranger to dealing with White Sox GM Kenny Williams and he wasn't afraid to pull the trigger when Swish came on the market after a horrific start to his White Sox tenure. Wilson Betemit was a small price to pay for such a great buy-low candidate in Swish, and Cashman's research and aggressiveness paid off. Swish brought fun and excitement to a clubhouse that had been filled with far too many egotistical veterans. He also brought average defense which made him look like Willie Mays compared to right fielders past. Along with quality intangibles, Nick also brought patience, power, consistency and versatility. As a Yankee Swisher has provided the Yanks with an 11 win upgrade over replacement candidates such as Chris Dickerson and Greg Golson. His .267/.368/.486/.370 line is exactly the type of production we signed up for when we acquired Swish, a 13.3% walk rate also leads the team among qualified candidates since joining the squad. Swish is of course a switch hitter, posting a career wOBA of .350+ from both sides of the dish.
Aside from being a great player, we must also appreciate what a bargain Swish has been. First and foremost, we gave up only an aging utility player, Wilson Betemit, a useful player, but no Swish. Swish was acquired two years into his measly 5/$26 mil deal, a great contract negotiated by Billy Beane, but inexplicably dumped by Williams after just one season. The Yanks were on the hook for only three years and about 20 mil, with a 2012 option at just $10 mil. So how valuable has Nick Swisher been in terms of dollars and wins? Fangraphs can help us figure out his net worth.
2009- Paid $5.40 Mil, 3.2 WAR, Worth $14.2 Mil
2010- Paid $6.85 Mil, 4.1 WAR, Worth $16.4 Mil
2011- Paid $9.10 Mil, 3.8 WAR, Worth $17 Mil
2012- Paid $10.25 Mil, WAR ?, Worth ?
From 2009-2011 the Yanks have paid Swish just over $21 Million, but he has vastly outproduced his contract, as he has been worth about $47.6 Million over that time. The Yanks have essentially gotten premiere production at a bargain price as Swish has been the 7th most valuable RF from 2009-2011. While it is difficult in today's modern era to acquire players that will outperform their contract, the Yankees struck gold when they made this move and it has surely paid off.
Lastly let's try to project Swish for 2012, as many are pessimistic after watching him swing over low-and-away sliders in the 2011 ALDS against the Tigers. Swish has been remarkably consistent throughout his career, so projecting him shouldn't be too difficult as its unlikely to see too much variance from years past. Bill James, Rotochamp, and The Fans at Fangraphs all project Swish to put up about a .360 wOBA, right in line with his .357 career figure, with slightly above average fielding (2.0). I'll sign up for this any day, especially at the "bargain price" of $10 Mil. The Fans (which are usually a tad optimistic) project Nick to be worth 4.2 wins, so let's round down to 4 for ease. In today's game a win is usually worth $5-5.5 Mil, so to get Swish at just $2.5 Mil/Win is a pleasant sight. Swish's market value this year should be around $20 Mil, to get a player in his prime at half-price is a key to building a winner in 2012.
All in all we should be more appreciative of Swish. Between the walks, bombs, and pies-in-the-face, he is one of the most valuable Yankees in terms of $/wins. While many will scoff at the regular season numbers and only place weight on postseason production, we must remember that just 100 of 1,690 Swish's Yankee career AB's have come in the postseason. And while easy to judge a player in October, it truly is April-September that matters when evaluating a player. Of course some postseason magic would help his resume, but we should all step back and thank Nick for his great service.
- Alex Bardani
References: Cot's Baseball Contracts, Fangraphs.com
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
Rotation Upgrade: Pineda/Kuroda vs. Garcia/Colon
The Yankees biggest splash of the off season came pretty late as they made an upgrade to a starting rotation in dire need of repair. While the "throw junk on the wall and see what sticks" worked in the 2011 regular season, we all knew this rotation could not compete for a title. While Brian Cashman smartly stepped aside and let other teams overpay for FA starters like C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish, the Yankees scooped up a young stud with an average fastball of 96 MPH, and a reliable veteran who has compiled 8.5 wins in his last three seasons for the Dodgers. But how much of an upgrade will Pineda and Kuroda provide? After all Garcia and Colon (luck aside) provided the Yanks with just over 5 wins above replacement in 2011. Pineda and Kuroda were responsible for just .7 wins more than the veteran stop-gaps. As bad as the Yankees rotation seemed last year due to the quality/age/weight of the pitchers on the mound, it will actually be quite hard to duplicate. With Kuroda moving from the most run suppressed division in the game to the slugging AL East, and Pineda moving from cavernous Safeco to 'The Stadium', both pitchers could easily regress.
The most important factor here is realizing that Garcia and Colon's production was not repeatable by any measure in 2012, and the starting rotation needed to be addressed in the offseason. Colon faded down the stretch and while Garcia remained remarkably consistent. However, Freddy's 2.1 K/BB ratio and 8% HR/FB ratio (which is 3% below career average) do not bode well for a similar 3.62 ERA over 146 IP in 2012. Colon is now a member of the A's so projecting his performance is a moot point, but his production last year cannot be overlooked, and must be used to see how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on our second and third best starters last year.
Now lets look a little more at Garcia. If we use his xFIP as a better indicator of future performance, his 4.36 figure is a little more realistic. While this type of performance would be acceptable as a #4/#5 starter, it wasn't good enough to bring the Yanks a title in 2011. Although providing solid production, it would be foolish to think Garcia can repeat/improve his 2011 numbers. Overall, while both players were quite valuable in 2011, there is little evidence to show they could replicate that performance.
Lets take a look at all four pitcher's 2011 production to try to predict how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on the Yanks #2 and #3 starters production in 2012.
2011:
Colon: 164.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 2.9 WAR
Garcia: 146.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 2.2 WAR
Pineda: 171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 3.4 WAR
Kuroda: 202 IP, 3.07 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
At first glance this looks like a clear upgrade for the Yanks, their newly acquired starters will surely outproduce the guys found off the scrap heap last year right? The answer, maybe not as obvious as it seems. We must adjust for league and park effects to accurate predict their 2012 value. We will use some projections and common sense to see how much the Yanks stand to improve.
Projections are inherently flawed, but in February its all we've got so let's speculate. Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released some projections of what can be expected of Pineda and Kuroda, which can be found here. Basically it projects Kuroda (3.1) and Pineda (3.2) to be equally valuable in 2012. This is right in with Kuroda's value over the past few seasons, and Pineda might stand to regress a touch in a tougher division and home ballpark. Of course there is varying room for improvement and regression with both pitchers maxing out at about 5 wins and bottoming out near 1.5 wins. If we assume the baseline projections we come up with 6.3 wins, about one win more than the #2 and #3 starters last year.
However, the addition of these pitchers add value because Phil Hughes/AJ Burnett will be exiled from the rotation. With Nova and Garcia (projected 4.2 wins) instead of Hughes/Burnett (projected 1.8 wins), the Yanks look to have added about three wins by adding these pitchers. Cashman should also be praised for conserving funds and using tools within the organization to fill holes on the roster instead of writing checks to players off of career years.
Overall the Yankees do not seem to gain an immense upgrade over Garcia and Colon's surprising 2011 performance, but they do stand to reap the rewards of removing weak links from the rotation. I think we can see about a three game improvement in this department, hopefully aided by another great defensive performance like in 2011. Let's hope these additions can propel us to the top in the tough AL East where every game counts.
-Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs.com, Replacement Level Yankees Blog
The Yankees biggest splash of the off season came pretty late as they made an upgrade to a starting rotation in dire need of repair. While the "throw junk on the wall and see what sticks" worked in the 2011 regular season, we all knew this rotation could not compete for a title. While Brian Cashman smartly stepped aside and let other teams overpay for FA starters like C.J. Wilson and Yu Darvish, the Yankees scooped up a young stud with an average fastball of 96 MPH, and a reliable veteran who has compiled 8.5 wins in his last three seasons for the Dodgers. But how much of an upgrade will Pineda and Kuroda provide? After all Garcia and Colon (luck aside) provided the Yanks with just over 5 wins above replacement in 2011. Pineda and Kuroda were responsible for just .7 wins more than the veteran stop-gaps. As bad as the Yankees rotation seemed last year due to the quality/age/weight of the pitchers on the mound, it will actually be quite hard to duplicate. With Kuroda moving from the most run suppressed division in the game to the slugging AL East, and Pineda moving from cavernous Safeco to 'The Stadium', both pitchers could easily regress.
The most important factor here is realizing that Garcia and Colon's production was not repeatable by any measure in 2012, and the starting rotation needed to be addressed in the offseason. Colon faded down the stretch and while Garcia remained remarkably consistent. However, Freddy's 2.1 K/BB ratio and 8% HR/FB ratio (which is 3% below career average) do not bode well for a similar 3.62 ERA over 146 IP in 2012. Colon is now a member of the A's so projecting his performance is a moot point, but his production last year cannot be overlooked, and must be used to see how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on our second and third best starters last year.
Now lets look a little more at Garcia. If we use his xFIP as a better indicator of future performance, his 4.36 figure is a little more realistic. While this type of performance would be acceptable as a #4/#5 starter, it wasn't good enough to bring the Yanks a title in 2011. Although providing solid production, it would be foolish to think Garcia can repeat/improve his 2011 numbers. Overall, while both players were quite valuable in 2011, there is little evidence to show they could replicate that performance.
Lets take a look at all four pitcher's 2011 production to try to predict how much Pineda and Kuroda can improve on the Yanks #2 and #3 starters production in 2012.
2011:
Colon: 164.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 2.9 WAR
Garcia: 146.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 4.36 xFIP, 2.2 WAR
Pineda: 171 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 3.4 WAR
Kuroda: 202 IP, 3.07 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 2.4 WAR
At first glance this looks like a clear upgrade for the Yanks, their newly acquired starters will surely outproduce the guys found off the scrap heap last year right? The answer, maybe not as obvious as it seems. We must adjust for league and park effects to accurate predict their 2012 value. We will use some projections and common sense to see how much the Yanks stand to improve.
Projections are inherently flawed, but in February its all we've got so let's speculate. Replacement Level Yankees Weblog released some projections of what can be expected of Pineda and Kuroda, which can be found here. Basically it projects Kuroda (3.1) and Pineda (3.2) to be equally valuable in 2012. This is right in with Kuroda's value over the past few seasons, and Pineda might stand to regress a touch in a tougher division and home ballpark. Of course there is varying room for improvement and regression with both pitchers maxing out at about 5 wins and bottoming out near 1.5 wins. If we assume the baseline projections we come up with 6.3 wins, about one win more than the #2 and #3 starters last year.
However, the addition of these pitchers add value because Phil Hughes/AJ Burnett will be exiled from the rotation. With Nova and Garcia (projected 4.2 wins) instead of Hughes/Burnett (projected 1.8 wins), the Yanks look to have added about three wins by adding these pitchers. Cashman should also be praised for conserving funds and using tools within the organization to fill holes on the roster instead of writing checks to players off of career years.
Overall the Yankees do not seem to gain an immense upgrade over Garcia and Colon's surprising 2011 performance, but they do stand to reap the rewards of removing weak links from the rotation. I think we can see about a three game improvement in this department, hopefully aided by another great defensive performance like in 2011. Let's hope these additions can propel us to the top in the tough AL East where every game counts.
-Alex Bardani
References: Fangraphs.com, Replacement Level Yankees Blog
Friday, February 3, 2012
Welcome!
New York Dankees is a blog by Alex Bardani all about your New York Yankees. My goal is to provide (sometimes objective/sometimes homer) analysis from the perspective of a life-long Yankee fan with a great deal of sabermetric analysis. Feel free to discuss any NYY topics or suggest articles you would like to see on the blog. Thanks to all and GO YANKS!
New York Dankees is a blog by Alex Bardani all about your New York Yankees. My goal is to provide (sometimes objective/sometimes homer) analysis from the perspective of a life-long Yankee fan with a great deal of sabermetric analysis. Feel free to discuss any NYY topics or suggest articles you would like to see on the blog. Thanks to all and GO YANKS!
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